Kansas cool summers probably won’t lead to harsh winters, experts say

Does a cool summer mean a harsh winter for the Wichita area?

Not necessarily.

A late-August heat wave that more than doubled the number of 100-degree days in Wichita for the year hushed — momentarily, at least — a question many folks were asking as summer’s home stretch arrived.

But August was below normal for temperatures before the heat wave arrived and July was so cool Wichita hadn’t seen one like it since 1967.

Yet forecasters say a cool summer doesn’t mean a harsh winter any more than the 102 temperature Wichita logged on May 4 foretold a blast furnace of a summer.

“They’re usually not related,” said Jerry Killingsworth, a meteorologist with the Goodland branch of the National Weather Service.

Meteorologist Andy Kleinsasser studied unusually cool summers to see whether they set the stage for harsh winters in Wichita

“Long story short … not much of a correlation,” Kleinsasser said in an e-mail response to questions.

Kleinsasser reviewed every Wichita summer since records began being kept in 1889. He found 34 “cool” summers — those with an average temperature at least one degree below the average.

Of those 34 cool summers, more than half of the ensuing winters — 18 — turned out to fall within normal temperature parameters for Wichita. Eight winters were warmer than normal and eight were colder than normal.

Nearly one-third of the winters following those cool summers turned out to be snowier than normal and more than 40 percent were near normal for snowfall. Little more than one-fourth of those cool summers translated to less snow than normal the following winter.

The best signal for getting a reading on winter is whether an El Nino is occurring, Killingsworth said. An El Nino is when the water in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of Peru and Ecuador becomes unusually warm, most commonly in late December.

The southern jet stream in the continental U.S. typically becomes stronger and more active during strong El Ninos, forecasters say. Southern Kansas is on the northern edge of the southern jet stream’s most frequent track, Killingsworth said, so Wichita could see wetter winters then.

While computer models continue to suggest an El Nino will develop soon, he said, projections indicate it will be a weak one at best.

For whatever it’s worth, the Farmers Almanac is calling for a “bitter and snowy” winter in the nation’s heartland, with 75 percent of the U.S. enduring blow-normal temperatures.

This story was originally published August 31, 2014 at 4:07 PM with the headline "Kansas cool summers probably won’t lead to harsh winters, experts say."