Following 2016’s winding road to the White House
No sense being confident in predicting how the presidential race will unfold in 2016. After all, not a lot has been predictable so far.
The big early dates this year come during February, as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina voters winnow the field, and in mid-March, when the inevitability factor becomes apparent.
Then again, nothing has been inevitable in this campaign. Did anybody forecast Donald Trump as the Republican front-runner as the election year begins? Or that Hillary Clinton’s strongest challenger would be Bernie Sanders, a maverick independent senator?
Was Jeb Bush, with his family’s political network and a huge campaign treasury, expected to be mired in single digits? Wouldn’t Florida’s Marco Rubio and Ohio’s John Kasich, neither of whom has shown much momentum, make a hard-to-beat team?
This much can be said as 2016 dawns: Certain dates do hold the promise of providing pivotal moments. Here’s our list of how to follow the year’s political pandemonium.
JANUARY
Republicans hold their first debate of the year on Thursday, and the main event will feature seven candidates. Democrats follow three days later.
Voters are now starting to make up their minds, and impressions made a few weeks before they vote matter. That means huge potential for make-or-break moments.
FEBRUARY
1. Iowa’s caucuses, Feb. 1: Yes, the state’s Republican race is not a true reflection of the national party, because there’s a heavy Christian right-wing vote. And the previous two winners, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, faded fast. Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton has a big lead, so no drama there.
What counts here is (a) any surprise, and (b) the potential to winnow the field. Ambitions are born and dashed in this caucus.
When Barack Obama beat Clinton in Iowa eight years ago (she finished third), it signaled he was formidable. Ditto Jimmy Carter, thanks to a strong showing in 1976, and George H.W. Bush when he stunned Ronald Reagan four years later.
Iowa is also last call for a lot of candidates, and Feb. 2 is likely to be the day when those who didn’t reach 5 percent give up.
2. New Hampshire primary, Feb. 9: The state’s voters cast the year’s first secret ballots, and the candidates play the expectations game. Sanders is from Vermont, the state next door, so any stumble will hurt. Among Republicans, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie fits the center-right, give-’em-hell type voters like.
New Hampshire is legendary for putting underdogs in the spotlight, and a good showing by Jeb Bush, former business executive Carly Fiorina or someone else lagging in the polls could vault them into the top tier overnight.
3. South Carolina, the unpredictable state: Republicans vote Feb. 20, Democrats a week later. Non-Southern candidates want to do well here to show they have true national appeal.
That worked for both Bushes, John McCain and Obama. A big win by Trump or Clinton would give them important momentum.
MARCH
March 1: Thirteen states, many in the South, as well as Democrats abroad and Democrats in American Samoa, vote.
Two new numbers matter: money, because one-on-one campaigning won’t work when one-fourth of the states are voting. The other large number: delegates to the nominating conventions, as the first big haul is available this day.
Losers will have one more big chance. They will say the day’s results are misleading because most of the states voting lean heavily conservative.
March 5: The Kansas Republican and Democratic presidential caucuses will be held.
March 8 and 15: The also-rans will aim heavily at these Tuesdays as the race moves to more diverse states.
Republican rules also change. As of mid-March, states can use a winner-take-all system for delegates, a change designed to crown a nominee more quickly.
Michigan goes first on March 8, and will offer clues to what’s on tap a week later in Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Florida and North Carolina. If clear front-runners emerge March 15, the races could be effectively over.
APRIL
Party leaders would love to see a virtual nominee by mid-March, and they usually get their wish. If the race becomes a free-for-all, a new phase begins this month, centered in more moderate states.
Wisconsin is up first on April 5, then New York on April 19 and five Northeastern states, notably Pennsylvania, a week later.
JUNE
Modern nominating fights rarely last this long. If these get this far, the final delegate bonanza is available June 7, with six states, including California and New Jersey, voting.
California alone offers 172 Republican delegates, or about 14 percent of the total needed to nominate.
Also worth watching: If Trump loses the GOP nomination, will he run as an independent? The speculation will be deafening.
JULY
Republicans go first, convening July 18 for four days in Cleveland.
Should no one enter the convention with the 1,236 delegates (out of 2,470) needed to win, anything goes. The last time a convention took more than one ballot to pick a nominee was 1952. The last time there was even a dollop of suspense about the eventual nominee at a convention was in 1976.
Democrats meet a week later, July 25-28, in Philadelphia. With only three major candidates, no one expects a brokered convention. The drama here will involve who winds up as the vice presidential running mate; at the moment, there are few logical choices.
SEPTEMBER
Labor Day is regarded as the unofficial kickoff of the general election campaign. Democrats usually pair with labor unions for events. Republicans tend to visit swing states.
The big day is Sept. 26, when the candidates are scheduled to meet at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio, for their first debate.
OCTOBER
Two things to watch: the quadrennial speculation over an “October surprise,” some unforeseen event, either planned or spontaneous, that rocks the race.
Likely to be a bigger deal are three more debates: presidential candidates Oct. 9 in St. Louis and 19 in Las Vegas and a vice presidential showdown in Farmville, Va., on Oct. 4.
NOVEMBER
Nov. 8 is the big day; 270 electoral votes are needed to crown a winner.
In 1980, the result was clear by 7 p.m. CST. In 2000, the result wasn’t known until a month later.
If the 2015 pattern holds, don’t even try to predict who will win, let alone when.
This story was originally published January 13, 2016 at 5:40 PM with the headline "Following 2016’s winding road to the White House."