Marshall and Trump have single-digit leads in Kansas as NYT poll shows tight races
Kansas Republican Rep. Roger Marshall leads Democrat Barbara Bollier by 4 points in the high-stakes race for the state’s open Senate seat, according to a new poll from The New York Times.
Marshall had 46% support compared to Bollier’s 42%, according to the survey of 755 likely voters conducted between October 18 and 20 by The Times and Siena College.
Marshall’s lead falls within the margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points, which means either candidate could be leading.
Libertarian Jason Buckley netted 4%, while 6% were undecided. The remaining 2% of respondents said they would either vote for someone else or not vote in the Senate race.
The poll also found an unusually close presidential contest in the reliably red state. President Donald Trump who won the state by double digits in 2016, led former vice president Joe Biden 48% to 41%.
Kansas has not gone for a Democrat in a presidential race since 1964 and the last time one came within single digits was 1976. If Trump underperforms previous GOP candidates, it could hamper Republicans down the ballot.
If the margin in the Senate race is accurate, it would be Kansas’ closest Senate contest since 1974 when Republican Sen. Bob Dole eked out a narrow win over Democratic Rep. Bill Roy.
The New York Times poll is in line with most other surveys of the race, which have found neither candidate with a solid lead.
However, most of the other polls were paid for by partisan organizations, which makes this the first truly independent survey of the race since the August primary.
In 2018, The New York Times and Siena College accurately predicted Democrat Sharice Davids’ victory in the Kansas 3rd Congressional District over incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder.
“Polling has consistently shown this race in a dead heat, and that hasn’t changed,” Bollier spokeswoman Alexandra De Luca said in a text message following the release of the poll.
Marshall’s campaign celebrated the margin of error lead as a sign that the Republican congressman has momentum in the race despite Bollier’s fundraising advantage.
“This poll reflects what we’re seeing on the ground. That despite the historic flood of money coming from out-of-state, Dr. Marshall has the lead and closing momentum in this race,” Marshall campaign manager Eric Pahls said in a text message.
A survey released earlier this week by the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, which was paid for by the health care advocacy group Protect Our Care, found the candidates deadlocked at 43 %.
Another poll that came out the same day, from the pro-Marshall Keep Kansas Great PAC, gave the Republican a 12-point lead. At this point, that survey appears to be an outlier.
The two candidates, both doctors, are set to meet in a televised debate hosted by Wichita TV station KWCH Thursday evening.
The New York Times poll reveals the importance that Wichita could play in swinging the Senate race.
Bollier has double digit leads in the Kansas City, Topeka and Lawrence regions. Marshall is similarly dominating in the “Big First,” the expansive congressional district he represents.
The Wichita area, however, is much more competitive, with Trump narrowly leading Biden 44% to 40%. Marshall is outperforming Trump in the region despite lagging him statewide, leading Bollier 46 % to 38 %.
The area was an important piece of Democrat Laura Kelly’s 2018 victory in the race for Kansas governor as she won both Sedgwick and Harvey counties.
In addition to revealing Bollier’s relative weakness in Wichita, the poll also highlights Marshall’s potential problem with unaffiliated voters, a key voting bloc in Kansas. Bollier leads Marshall 51 % to 31 % with independents.
Both candidates are winning the overwhelming majority of voters of their own party. Bollier has support from 91 % of Democrats compared to 4 % for Marshall, while Marshall has support from 80 % of Republicans compared to 11 % for Bollier, who was a Republican until late 2018.
The poll also reveals a stark contrast in gender among the candidates’ supporters. Bollier leads Marshall with female voters by 10 points, but she trails him by 19 points with male voters.
This story was originally published October 22, 2020 at 1:09 PM with the headline "Marshall and Trump have single-digit leads in Kansas as NYT poll shows tight races."
