Republican ‘silent majority’ ousted moderate lawmakers. What will it mean for Kansas?

Moderate Republicans, for decades a prominent feature of Kansas politics, aren’t extinct. But after last week’s primary elections, they’re back on the endangered species list.

Moderates fell to conservatives in Republican legislative contests across the state. The consequences will play out over the next few years, possibly determining the outcome of debates over Medicaid expansion, abortion and Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s powers during the pandemic.

As GOP voters reckoned with at least two more years under a Democratic governor and the lack of action on an abortion amendment to the state constitution, they cast their ballots for the most conservative option in race after race. They almost certainly ensured the Republican majorities in the House and Senate will lean further to the right after November -- regardless of whether Democrats gain seats in the general election.

“Moderates were essentially wiped out—the Republican moderates,” said Michael Poppa, director of the Mainstream Coalition, which often supports moderates.

Moderate Republicans have remained a force in the Kansas Legislature for years, even as they were squeezed out of Congress and other statehouses. At times, they have used their leverage to blunt the edges of conservative-driven policy or even strike an occasional tactical alliance with Democrats.

Their significantly diminished strength may embolden conservatives next year.

Backed by a more-conservative House Republican caucus, anti-abortion legislators who tried and failed this spring to advance an amendment declaring the state constitution doesn’t affirm the right to an abortion may try again in 2021. The amendment cleared the Senate but stalled in the House, where all Democrats and four Republicans voted no.

None of the four will be returning to the Legislature.

Moderates considered key votes for Medicaid expansion were also taken out. Expansion may still enjoy majority support in the Legislature, but conservative gains reduce the chance that Republicans will install legislative leaders who are supportive—or at least not openly hostile—to opening up eligibility for the health coverage program.

Conservatives also said voters were frustrated by Kelly’s response to the pandemic and crave certainty for their lives and businesses. The Legislature passed a bipartisan compromise limiting the governor’s emergency powers in June that Kelly signed into law, but conservative candidates may push to go further if elected.

“Last night’s election results affirmed Kansans want to thrive in a culture of limited government, opportunity and self determination; all while respecting life, neighbors, law and order,” Senate President Susan Wagle, a Wichita Republican, said Wednesday.

The outcome of last Tuesday’s primary elections means that in many legislative districts across the state, voters will face a stark choice in the general election. Whether conservative Republicans or Democrats emerge victorious in those races won’t be known until November, but the end result will almost certainly be a more ideologically divided Legislature.

“What we’ve become is much more extreme,” said Rep. Jan Kessinger, a moderate Overland Park Republican who lost his primary to a conservative challenger.

Conservatives were ‘silent majority’

The influence of Kansas Republican moderates has waxed and waned. Gov. Sam Brownback helped oust them in 2012. Voters then swept a wave of them back into office in 2016 to end his signature income tax cuts and stabilize the state budget.

But with last week’s primary losses, their ranks have been depleted to levels not seen for years.

Sen. John Skubal of Overland Park lost to the more-conservative Rep. Kellie Warren of Leawood, who has said she doesn’t believe masks have been proven to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Sen. Mike Thompson, a former weatherman from Shawnee who has questioned the attention paid to climate change, held onto his seat in the face of a challenge from the more-moderate Rep. Tom Cox, also of Shawnee. During an interview with The Star Editorial Board, Thompson argued society has to get Black people “back into the churches” and to “a more cohesive Black family.” Cox gave up his chance to run for re-election in the House to take on Thompson.

Sen. Mary Jo Taylor of Stafford lost to Rep. Alicia Straub of Ellinwood. Sen. Randall Hardy lost to Rep. J.R. Claeys, both of Salina. In Hutchinson, Sen. Ed Berger lost to anesthesiologist Mark Steffen.

Steffen said his campaign stuck to a motto of “God, family and true conservatism.” He said his victory was possible through the “silent majority,” which he described as hardworking Republicans who believe in God, the traditional family and the American dream.

When his campaign knocked on doors “and led with God’s name,” it created a bond with voters, he said.

“From there it created a legitimacy, it created a bond that led into other issues and those other issues really were the feeling that they weren’t being represented,” Steffen said. “They had a Republican senator, but in Topeka he just did not vote like they think and that opened the door very, very widely.”

Kessinger said he was ousted as part of a “very strong ultraconservative backlash.” He was one of the four Republican representatives who voted against the abortion amendment. The other three decided against running for re-election.

He lost to Jane Dirks, whose campaign website says she believed in a ”commitment to a culture of life.”

The amendment played a role with at some least some voters, candidates said. Kessinger attributed his loss to voters who turned out because they were upset with his votes on abortion.

Claeys said Republican voters will tolerate lawmakers who are more moderate on spending and taxes, but warned they don’t have patience for those who don’t hold onto core conservative values like life and the Second Amendment.

“They’re willing to move to the center on some issues, but certainly not on those core Republican principles,” Claeys said.

With the loss of Kessinger and Skubal, every Republican legislator who opposed the abortion amendment will be gone come January. Supporters of the measure may try again to clear the two-thirds majority threshold needed to advance it through the Legislature.

The Kansans for Life PAC said in a statement it “looks forward to electing the needed 2/3rd majorities necessary in November to protect women and their babies from unlimited abortion.”

But securing those majorities is far from certain.

Democrats need a net gain of just one seat to deprive Republicans of a supermajority in the House, Without a supermajority, Republicans won’t be able to override vetoes by Kelly without Democratic support.

Republicans have held a supermajority in the House for a decade. Democrats are also hopeful they could gain several Senate seats, including in districts where conservatives defeated moderates. The party currently holds 11 of the chamber’s 40 seats.

Democrat Lindsey Constance will face Thompson in the general election in Senate District 10. Constance, a Shawnee city council member, said the district is becoming more favorable to Democrats.

“It’s definitely trending that way and in addition we have had a lot of women winning seats, women that stand for those values of public health and education and care about the environment – those have been the people who have been winning,” Constance said.

The 2016 Democratic candidate, current Kansas Democratic Party chairwoman Vicki Hiatt, lost a close race, earning 48.6 percent of the vote to the Republican’s 51.6 percent. While President Donald Trump won the district with 48 percent of the vote in 2016, Kelly earned 54 percent in 2018, according to statistics compiled by University of Kansas political scientist Patrick Miller.

Democrats may limit Republican gains

Democratic gains could be crucial in limiting the power of conservative Republicans, especially if they can end the GOP supermajority in one or both chambers.

“I think you’re finding the Democrats are extremely motivated right now and so if they can, say, take 10 seats in the House, you’ve lost your supermajority. Yes, you may have more conservative Republicans than moderate Republicans in the House, but the governor’s got veto power,” said Rep. Brenda Dietrich, a Topeka Republican who defeated the more-conservative Sen. Eric Rucker on Tuesday -- a rare conservative primary loss.

Democratic seats may also decide the fate of Medicaid expansion. Moderate losses on Tuesday have already likely pushed the Republican caucus in the House and Senate to the right, giving conservatives greater sway when legislative leaders are chosen after the general election.

Leadership contests can come across as inside baseball. But the House speaker, Senate president and majority leaders in both chambers collectively exercise considerable control over the legislative agenda. Wagle used her procedural powers to block Medicaid expansion after the abortion amendment stalled, for instance.

Kelly has repeatedly blamed legislative leaders for problems passing expansion.

“Every single Kansas voter must ask themselves why, year after year, Republican leadership in the Legislature has blocked expansion,” the governor said after Missouri voters approved expansion this week, leaving Kansas as one of only 11 states that haven’t expanded.

Wagle isn’t running for re-election. Two senators seen as possible contenders for president, Sen. Ty Masterson of Andover and Sen. Jeff Longbine of Emporia, have staked out different positions on expansion. Masterson has opposed it while Longbine has supported it.

If Republicans select leaders opposed to expansion, advancing the proposal may depend on whether Democrats have the votes to force through expansion over the procedural roadblocks put up by GOP leaders.

“They will probably all continue to be tied up in politics. It depends on what happens this fall,” former Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer said of both the abortion amendment and Medicaid expansion. “Too soon to say how all of these things will break.”

Poppa, with Mainstream Coalition, said Tuesday’s results could make passing “common sense” policies more difficult. But he stressed nothing is for sure until the general election.

“I think the fate of the Kansas Legislature is still to be decided,” Poppa said.

The Star’s Bryan Lowry contributed reporting