Kansas Democrats without a candidate in 2nd District, but party hopes that changes
Incumbent Republican Congressman Steve Watkins and Kansas Treasurer Jake LaTurner are expected to spend the next nine months battling each other for their party’s nomination in the state’s 2nd Congressional District – a bitter fight that could leave the winner bruised going into the 2020 general election.
Right now, Democrats have no one ready to take advantage of it.
Since Abbie Hodgson, speechwriter for former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, dropped out last month after poor fundraising numbers, the Democratic side of the race has been vacant. Party insiders say a handful of potential candidates are weighing campaigns, but no one has stepped up.
Their reluctance may be attributable, at least in part, to the national Democratic party’s lack of interest.
Democrats had high hopes of winning the seat in 2018, following the retirement of ten-year GOP incumbent Lynn Jenkins. Republicans nominated Watkins, a political newcomer dogged by concerns about his business dealings. His opponent, Lawrence attorney Paul Davis, enjoyed statewide recognition from a 2014 run for governor against Sam Brownback.
Watkins edged out Davis by one percentage point, despite $3 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) the party’s main organization for House races. The narrow loss, coming in a year Democrats took control of the House, left the party deflated about its chances this time around.
The DCCC currently has no plans to target the district in 2020. It is focusing its Kansas resources on protecting freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in the adjacent 3rd.
“Certainly, the chair of the party couldn’t be expected to say this … but look, I’d say almost utter resignation that it’s less than a year out now, there’s no one there that’s raised any money at all,” Burdett Loomis, a political scientist at the University of Kansas, said.
Loomis said he’s heard “very little” to suggest Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly or Sebelius are involving themselves in the race.
Kansas Democrats this week expressed concern in interviews that with the lack of a candidate, valuable fundraising and organizing time is slipping away.
Party insiders mention Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla as a potential contender before Hodgson launched her campaign. Now that Hodgson has dropped out, De La Isla’s name has begun circulating again among party operatives and political observers.
“Let’s put it this way, I am being approached with the issue. I haven’t made a decision yet,” De La Isla said in a brief interview this week.
De La Isla could draw interest from EMILY’s List, a national organization dedicated to electing Democratic women. It is still working to recruit in the district, said spokesman Benjamin Roy. He added the group expects “to support a strong woman candidate” and that the district is a top target for 2020.
Whether it’s EMILY’s List or the DCCC, national aid is crucial for a Democrat to be competitive, Davis said in an interview.
“If you don’t get any outside help, it is almost an impossible task,” Davis said. “The amount of money that was spent when I ran in 2018 was astronomical.”
Over the past decade, Democrats have struggled in the district. It includes Topeka and Lawrence – and their Democratic cores – but also large swaths of conservative rural eastern Kansas.
Democrats also currently lack a candidate in the 4th District, which includes Wichita and southcentral Kansas. But the party hasn’t held that seat since 1995.
By contrast, Democrats controlled the 2nd District as recently as 2008, before Nancy Boyda lost to Jenkins. After that, no Democrat won more than 39 percent of the vote until 2018, when Davis received nearly 47 percent.
Still, a Watkins-LaTurner primary offers some Democrats hope of a costly fight they could turn to their advantage. Sherri Grogan, the 2nd District Democratic chair, said the party has a “good chance at that race.”
For their part, national Republicans dismiss the idea the Watkins-LaTurner contest will aid the other side.
“Kansas Democrats can’t find a sacrificial lamb in the 2nd Congressional District because everyone they approach knows they can’t run a competitive race because of the socialist agenda their party is pushing in Washington,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Bob Salera said in a statement.
However, some Republicans have voiced fears that Watkins would leave the seat vulnerable to a Democratic pickup. In August, former Gov. Jeff Colyer cited poor fundraising by the freshman lawmaker when he called on LaTurner to run. Watkins has dismissed concerns about his electability.
While far from certain, it is also possible the likely impeachment of President Donald Trump could reduce enthusiasm among Kansas Republican voters. If there is an anti-Trump wave, Democrats want to have someone able to take advantage of it, said Bob Beatty, a political scientist at Washburn University.
“It’s a big ‘if.’ If that wave isn’t there, the 2nd (district) is just a really tough race,” Beatty said. “So they have to convince someone to make that plunge with the idea that it’s very possible they could lose.”
Geography also compounds the task for any would-be hopefuls. The district touches three media markets – Kansas City, Topeka and Joplin – requiring more television advertising purchases to reach voters.
“That, from a cost standpoint, is definitely a challenge,” said Davis, who, for the record, said he isn’t considering another campaign.
Before dropping out in mid-October, Hodgson had raised roughly $69,000. Davis raised about $400,000 during an equivalent period in 2017.
At the time, she told supporters she was stepping aside to “make room for a candidate who can raise the money necessary to flip the seat in 2020.”
Whoever runs will be relatively unknown district-wide, said Curtis Hall, chair of Douglas County Democrats. It’s a sharp change from Davis.
“He was the exception to our rule,” Hall said.
This story was originally published November 16, 2019 at 5:00 AM.