Officials: El Nino likely to have minimal impact on Kansas

For most of 2014, El Nino was like the relative who consistently promised to visit but never actually came.

El Nino, the ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator, can have a significant impact on climate around the globe. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced recently that an El Nino was now in effect.

The news prompted a wide range of responses.

“After months and months of teasing forecasters, El Nino has officially arrived, and it’s set to boost global warming to new record levels,” meteorologist Eric Holthaus wrote in the online magazine Slate.

But weather officials in Kansas and elsewhere painted a different picture of what this El Nino will do.

“Due to the weak strength of the El Nino, widespread or significant global weather pattern impacts are not anticipated,” a statement on the NOAA’s official website reads.

Larry Ruthi, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service branch in Dodge City, said he also expects little from this warming of the Pacific’s equatorial waters.

“El Nino impacts on Kansas are weak even with strong events, and the most impact is during the cold season of the year,” Ruthi said in an e-mail. “Given that this event is likely to remain weak and will affect the warm season of the year, the impact on Kansas will be minimal.”

AccuWeather vice president Mike Smith said he also expects El Nino to have little effect on the weather in the Sunflower State.

There have been seven weak El Ninos in the past 62 years, Ruthi said: 1953, 1958, 1969, 1976, 1977, 2004 and 2006.

Rainfall in southwest Kansas from April to August was above average three times and below average four times, he said. Average rainfall in weak El Nino years was 13.08 inches, compared to an average of 13.59 for the 139 years of records kept in the Dodge City branch.

Temperatures from April to August were above average in six of the seven weak El Nino years and below average once. The average temperature in the weak El Nino years was 70.7 degrees, a full degree higher than the average for the bureau’s 139 years of records.

Taking into account another weather pattern currently in place in the Pacific that factors in jet streams, Ruthi said that pattern – called a Pacific Decadal Oscillation – and a weak El Nino have both occurred at the same time in recent history in 1977.

That year was warm and moist during the warm season, he said.

“However, I would be reluctant to make a strong statement based on a sample size of one,” Ruthi said.

Given the current state of the atmosphere, he said, he expects this summer to be about average for moisture and slightly above average in temperatures. In other words, not much of an impact.

This story was originally published March 8, 2015 at 7:33 PM with the headline "Officials: El Nino likely to have minimal impact on Kansas."