When will everyone in Sedgwick County be vaccinated? Here’s the COVID modeling timelines

Modeling for Sedgwick County shows the entire adult population could be vaccinated just in time for the start of the next school year. Or, it might not be until the end of the next school year.

The timeline depends on how many doses are delivered each week.

Sedgwick County Manager Tom Stolz said he estimates that all providers in the county combined have been receiving approximately 12,000 doses a week. This week, Sedgwick County was allocated 15,530 doses, according to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment.

During a Tuesday staff meeting of the Sedgwick County Commission, Stolz presented modeling at 12,000, 24,000 and 36,000 doses a week, starting at the end of March. The model used a population of approximately 400,000 adult people. While Sedgwick County has roughly 516,000 residents, the vast majority of children are not currently approved for vaccinations.

At 12,000 doses a week starting at the end of March, it would take until approximately November to get 50% of the population fully vaccinated and January 2022 to get 75%. It wouldn’t be until May 2022 that everyone could be fully vaccinated.

At 24,000 doses a week, the timeline would be moved up to July for 50% of the population fully vaccinated, and 100% by November.

At 36,000 doses a week, which Stolz said the county health department plus community partners are capable of doing, early June would be the point where 50% of the population is fully vaccinated. All eligible people in Sedgwick County could be vaccinated by the end of August.

Vaccinations are key to reopening the economy and society returning to more normalcy amid the coronavirus pandemic. Public health officials estimate that vaccinating upwards of 80% of the population would create a level of herd immunity that offers some level of protection to people who can’t or won’t get vaccinated.

Not everyone in Sedgwick County plans to get vaccinated. A survey by the University of Kansas School of Medicine in Wichita found that 65% of respondents want to be vaccinated when it is their turn, which likely won’t be enough for herd immunity.

“If we can’t get a majority of this population vaccinated, we’re going to have this virus around for a long time,” Stolz said.

While 16% of respondents said they don’t want the vaccine, 19% are on the fence and could be convinced to get vaccinated.

Those who choose to get vaccinated will still have to wait their turn.

“No matter what model you run here, everybody can’t be first,” Stolz said. “This is going to take weeks and months to do this. You have to embrace that, we have to understand it and hopefully get the people to understand that we don’t have enough for mass vaccination.”

Vaccination capacity

President Joe Biden announced earlier this month that the United States had secured contractual commitments from Moderna and Pfizer to deliver 600 million doses of vaccine by the end of July.

Commissioner Jim Howell, citing Biden’s announcement, expressed doubt that Sedgwick County would be able to vaccinate the whole population on that timeline.

“I’m not sure we have the capacity to manage those numbers in Sedgwick County,” Howell said. “When we’re doing 7,000 doses or 8,000 doses a week, we are not prepared for what’s about to come at us.”

Commissioner Sarah Lopez responded: “Just so we don’t have people that are extremely worried: Sedgwick County is capable of giving thousands, between the health department and our community partners.”

“We are capable of giving more,” she continued. “The only thing that’s stopping us at the moment is just the allocations that we’re receiving now.”

Stolz replied: “To say that the county doesn’t have capacity is wrong. We have tremendous capacity in this county.”

He said the health department and community partners, including pharmacies, are prepared. They just need the vaccines.

“It is a global issue,” Stolz said. “Everyone in the world needs the vaccine.”

He said that if there were ever a surge in available doses, the health department has existing strategies, such as a mass outdoor clinic at the ballpark, to do up to 50,000 vaccinations in a single day.

In the last week, the county administered 5,077 first doses and 3,170 second doses. The numbers reflect only the doses administered by the health department. Shots by other providers, such as hospitals and nursing homes, are not included.

“We don’t have those numbers, we don’t have any idea the total number of people in Sedgwick County (who have been vaccinated),” Commissioner David Dennis said. “I think as the Board of Health it would sure be nice if we knew the total number, but we don’t, unfortunately. And, we don’t know how many people have had COVID but did not come and get tested or were asymptomatic and now have antibodies.”

With limited allocations, Sedgwick County’s vaccine rollout has prioritized protecting the elderly. Stolz said that is consistent with the three focuses of health officer Dr. Garold Minns.

“One: Let’s stop the death,” Stolz said. “Two: Let’s try to relieve our hospitals and their ICU overcrowding. Three: When we can, let’s try to stop the spread through vaccination.”

After Phase One of vaccinating health care workers and nursing home residents and staff, several groups are included in the current Phase Two. People who are 65 years old or older are included in the second phase, as are school staff.

“Not everyone can be first,” Stolz said. “We have to prioritize based on public health standards and medicine.”

The Sedgwick County Health Department currently limits its vaccine availability to only people who are 70 or older, after previously having higher age limits. Stolz said he is hopeful the age limit will be lowered to 65 in the coming days.

Stolz said “it is critical that we don’t waste a single dose.” The county has created a list of about 400 names of public safety officials who want to be vaccinated and can be called in case excess doses are available.

“There’s many days we have zero left over, so that list is moving at a snail’s pace,” Stolz said.

School reopening and vaccination

Stolz said additional focus has been placed on inoculating school staff after Gov. Laura Kelly announced last week that she was making extra doses available to help reopen K-12 schools. The plan was made possible because of additional doses from the federal government.

Stolz said there are about 16,000 teachers and other school staff in Sedgwick County, and about 75% of them want to be vaccinated.

The health department will start vaccinating school staff this week.

“Our goal is to get everybody vaccinated with that first dose within three weeks,” said Tim Kaufman, the assistant county manager. “There is a possibility we will get it all done in two weeks because we have had additional vaccine come our way.”

Some school districts have already started vaccinating their staff.

Wichita Public Schools has already held two clinics. Kaufman said USD 259 went through 1,200 doses last weekend.

Derby Public Schools said in a news release that it has secured 700 doses, which is enough to cover every staff member who wants to be vaccinated. First shots will be administered this week.

Sedgwick County has roughly 10 public school districts, the Catholic Diocese and about 17 other private schools, said assistant county manager Tim Kaufman. Plans will be customized for each.

About half will follow a transfer model, where the county is allocated the doses but turns them over to another approved agency, such as a pharmacy or a clinic. That entity then takes responsibility for the doses, including the ultra-cold storage for the Pfizer vaccine.

Another model will use partnerships with other agencies, such as school nurses, pharmacies or local EMS. Those other agencies will dispense the shots, but the county will remain in control of the doses, including storage and data entry.

Some schools will follow a mobile point of dispensing model, where health department staff will provide everything. That will be used for smaller schools that don’t have the capacity to assist with vaccine clinics.

Dennis said that vaccinating teachers will help get kids back in the classroom and parents back to work.