COVID case rates are so high in Kansas that only 1 county is in the school green zone

Kansas is down to only one county in the green zone of two key coronavirus pandemic indicators for reopening schools while high COVID-19 case rates keep 75% of counties in the red zone of one criteria.

Chautauqua County in southeast Kansas is the only county in the green zone of the two-week incidence rate. It is also in the green zone of the two-week positive test rate.

All of the counties in the Wichita area are in the red zone of the incidence rate, though their color zones vary for the positive test rate.

The incidence rate and positive test rate are illustrated weekly on statewide maps published by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment. They are two key gating criteria in the Kansas State Department of Education’s school reopening guide.

Additional indicators in the color-coded guide are not shown on the KDHE maps.

Monday’s update from the KDHE, using two weeks of data through Saturday, showed 80 counties in the red zone of the incidence rate, 15 in the orange zone and nine in the yellow zone.

The measurement compares the number of new cases of COVID-19 over two weeks with the county population, expressed as the rate of new cases per 100,000 people.

Calculating disease rates per 100,000 is common practice in public health. Both the KDHE and the White House task force on COVID-19 use versions of the measurement. The Kansas red zone rate for schools of greater than 150 cases over two weeks per 100,000 people is the same as 15 cases per 10,000 people and 1.5 cases per 1,000 people.

In the Wichita area, the rate of new cases per 100,000 people increased in three counties and decreased in four.

• Sedgwick County’s rate decreased from 237 to 225.
• Reno County’s rate decreased from 656 to 560.
• Butler County’s rate decreased from 392 to 218.
• Harvey County’s rate increased from 206 to 229.
• Cowley County’s rate decreased from 243 to 155.
• Sumner County’s rate increased from 136 to 188.
• Kingman County’s rate increased from 196 to 280.

The rates could be under-counted because the most recent data may not be complete, according to a KDHE note. The highest case rates in the state are in rural areas. Northwest Kansas is the hardest-hit region.

There were seven counties with two-week rates higher than 1,000 new cases per 100,000 people. A rate of 1,000 is 567% higher than the red zone threshold of 150. Those counties were Norton at 4,794; Sheridan at 2,618; Decatur at 1,380; Gove at 1,328; Ellsworth at 1,229; Ness at 1,164; and Sherman at 1,099.

The positive test rate is a measure of new cases compared to new tests. The Wichita area had two counties in the red zone, two in orange and three in yellow. Rates above 15% are in the red zone, rates between 10% and 15% are in the orange zone and rates between 5% and 10% are in the yellow zone.

• Sedgwick County’s rate was 11.51%.
• Reno County’s rate was 19.41%.
• Butler County’s rate was 11.45%.
• Harvey County’s rate was 9.83%.
• Cowley County’s rate was 7.66%.
• Sumner County’s rate was 17.89%.
• Kingman County’s rate was to 7.20%.

Out of 105 counties, the positive test rate map has 14 counties in the green zone, 38 in yellow, 16 in orange and 37 in red.

The state’s plan does not specify whether one indicator in the red zone is enough to put schools in the red zone of the reopening plan.

Local school boards are not required to follow the state’s guide. The red zone recommends closing schools to in-person classes and stopping sports and other extracurricular activities. The yellow and orange zones have varying degrees of restrictions, such as hybrid learning and stopping high-risk activities, like football. The green zone is the only one that permits all sports while also allowing all students to go to class in-person five days a week.