More than 80% of Kansas counties now reporting COVID-19 case rates in the red zone

More Kansas counties had so many new cases of COVID-19 over the past two weeks that they moved into the red zone of one key state benchmark for closing schools during the coronavirus pandemic.

A map from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment showed 88 of 105 counties in the red zone of the incidence rate as of Monday. That’s 13 more counties than last week and 23 more than two weeks ago.

The measurement compares the number of new cases of COVID-19 over two weeks with the population, expressed as the rate of new cases per 100,000 people. It is one of five school reopening indicators established by the Kansas State Department of Education. The KDHE releases information by county for three of the five indicators.

The map reflects trends in Kansas and the United States of rural areas experiencing higher levels of community spread.

In the Wichita area, Sedgwick, Reno, Harvey, Butler, Cowley and Kingman counties are all in the red zone of the case rate indicator. Sumner County is in the only one in the yellow zone.

The education department’s reopening guide recommends closing schools to in-person classes and halting sports once in the red zone, but it does not require it. The state leaves the decision to local school boards.

The state’s plan does not specify whether one indicator in the red zone is enough to put schools in the red zone of the reopening plan.

Reno County has the highest rate in the Wichita area at 531 new cases per 100,000 people in the last two weeks. Harvey County has the second-highest rate at 247. The rates are 236 in Butler County, 182 in Sedgwick County, 158 in Cowley County and 154 in Kingman County.

The rates, which are for a two-week period ending Saturday, could be under-counted because the most recent data may not be complete, according to a KDHE note.

Calculating disease rates per 100,000 is common practice in public health. Both the KDHE and the White House task force on COVID-19 use versions of the measurement. The Kansas red zone rate for schools of greater than 150 cases over two weeks per 100,000 people is the same as 15 cases per 10,000 people or 1.5 cases per 1,000 people.

The worst rate was 2,555 per 100,000 in Norton County, which has a population of 5,361. That rate is equivalent to 255.5 per 10,000 and 25.55 per 1,000.

Norton County’s high rate appears to be due in part to an outbreak at a state prison. It is unclear how many of the new cases were inmates.

Norton County is one of seven Kansas counties with two-week rates higher than 1,000 new cases per 100,000 people. A rate of 1,000 is 567% higher than the red zone threshold of 150.

Sheridan County’s rate was 1,864 new cases per 100,000 people. The rate was 1,245 in Ellsworth County, 1,218 in Greeley County, 1,166 in Sherman County, 1,110 in Logan County and 1,062 in Gove County.

Rates must be below 50 new cases per 100,000 people for the indicator to be in the green zone. The green zone is the only portion of the state’s reopening plan that permits all students in school every day of the week and high-risk activities, such as football.

Only two Kansas counties — Lincoln at 34 and Woodson at 32 — had rates in the green zone. There were three counties in the green zone a week ago.

The school reopen plan has various restrictions on education and sports when in the yellow and orange zones. There were six counties in the yellow zone and nine in the orange zone.

The rate of new cases is one of two pandemic indicators for school reopening that the KDHE illustrates with a map.

The other is the two-week positive test rate, which bases its red zone on positivity rates greater than 15%. There were 24 counties that met the criteria. Stevens County had the worst rate at 46.88%, which is more than three times the red zone threshold.

In the Wichita area, Harvey County had the worst positive test rate at 10.75%, which is in the orange zone. Reno, Butler and Sedgwick counties were all in the yellow zone, which runs from 5% to 10%. The rates in those counties were 9.89%, 8.18% and 6.95%, respectively.

Three counties were in the green zone with Kingman County at 4.98%, Cowley County at 4.38% and Sumner County at 3.66%.