One week after Wichita schools started, here’s how COVID indicators have changed

Local indicators for reopening schools amid the coronavirus pandemic have improved in the week since Wichita and other area districts started class.

That improvement has not been enough to change color zones in reopening models. But if this week’s numbers follow last week’s trends, school districts in Sedgwick County may soon be in the least restrictive model for reopening. That could mean a return to all in-person classes and activities, depending on the district.

The improvement is most significant in two key indicators tracked by the Sedgwick County Health Department and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment: the positive test rate and the county incidence rate.

The KDHE produces statewide maps for those two indicators. Sedgwick County has one orange and one yellow on the color-coded scale of blue, yellow, orange and red. Blue represents the best numbers, followed by yellow and orange, while red represents the worst.

In the color-coded school gating criteria produced by the Kansas State Department of Education, blue is replaced with green for the least-restrictive reopening zone. The color zones have different meanings by school district.

Of the surrounding counties, Kingman County is the worst with both indicators in the red zone. Butler and Sumner counties both have one red and one yellow. Reno County has one orange and one yellow. Cowley County has one orange and one blue. Harvey County has two yellows.

Positive test rate

The positive test rate measures how many tests come back positive for COVID-19, which is calculated by dividing the number of new cases by the number of new tests over two weeks.

Under the state’s reopening guidelines, the positive test percentage color zone thresholds are set at 5%, 10% and 15%.

The KDHE’s statistics put Sedgwick County in the yellow zone with a two-week rate of 7.37% as of Saturday. Data from the Sedgwick County Health Department reports a lower positivity rate, but still in the yellow zone, at 5.93% as of Saturday.

The county’s weekly recovery and reopening metrics report notes that the most recent numbers are subject to change as additional results come in.

Both the state and local numbers show the positivity trend is decreasing. The weekly data that comprise the two-week rates show that the number of tests increased last week while the number of positive cases decreased.

The rate had been in the orange zone for most of July and August.

Sedgwick County’s positive test rate could move into the green zone next week if this week has numbers similar to last week.

County incidence rate

The county incidence rate, which is a measure of new COVID-19 cases compared to population, counts as two indicators — the rate and the trend in that rate. The rate is equal to the number of new cases over two weeks per 100,000 people.

Color zone thresholds are set at 50, 100 and 150 new cases.

The trend is green when it is decreasing and red when it is increasing. A stable trend is both yellow and orange.

The state’s weekly school data report puts Sedgwick County’s two-week incidence rate at 108 new cases as of Saturday. The county’s recovery metrics report puts the rate at 114.1 cases, though it may increase with updates to the report.

Both numbers are in the orange zone. The trend is in the green zone as it has decreased for several weeks in both reports.

For both the state and local reports, this was the second week in a row with an incidence rate in the orange zone. The rate had been in the red zone from about the start of July until about the end of August.

Sedgwick County’s incidence rate could move into the yellow zone next week if this week has numbers similar to last week.

Hospitalizations

The state guidelines have a local hospital capacity indicator. Wichita’s school board removed the hospital indicator from its reopening guide, though it remains in guides for other area school districts.

In the KSDE’s guide, thresholds are set at capacities of 30%, 20% and 10%.

There appears to be no perfect source for the information.

The KDHE reports state and regional hospital capacity information, but not local numbers. Additionally, it shows the availability of beds in intensive care units, but not the availability of all inpatient beds. It’s unclear whether the state intends for schools to use the ICU availability or the entire inpatient capacity.

The Sedgwick County Health Department reports local ICU availability, but not the total inpatient capacity. Using the ICU number would block county schools from moving into the green zone because about three-quarters of all ICU beds in Wichita are already filled by patients who do not have COVID-19.

While the interpretation of the hospital indicator for school reopening is unclear, Sedgwick County’s local hospital numbers are clearly improving. Monday’s total COVID-19 hospitalizations and the number of COVID-19 patients in the ICU were the lowest since July 6.

Absenteeism

There is also a measure for absenteeism, though school districts have not publicized those numbers and the local health department does not report it. The state health department has a graphical county breakdown, but it doesn’t show the exact numbers, it doesn’t list the benchmarks and it doesn’t show individual school districts.

It is unclear where schools in Sedgwick County fall on the scale.