Four counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ in Kansas, data show. Here’s what it means

Four counties in Kansas are at the highest risk level in a new COVID-19 data resource.

The map tool released Wednesday lets users search information about the threat of COVID-19 and new cases in every county in the U.S.

The Harvard Global Health Institute, partnered with other medical experts, created the tracker to help residents and governments make informed decisions while navigating the pandemic.

“The public needs clear and consistent information about COVID risk levels in different jurisdictions for personal decision-making, and policy-makers need clear and consistent visibility that permits differentiating policy across jurisdictions,” Danielle Allen, director of the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard University, said in a news release.

How the map works

The map uses four colors to illustrate risk levels in every county: green, yellow, orange and red. It uses the number of new cases a day per 100,000 people over seven days to determine the appropriate risk category.

The map will change daily as new data are uploaded into the tracker.

Here’s what each color means:

• Green: Less than one case a day per 100,000 people and containment is on track. Use contact tracing and testing to monitor.

• Yellow: One to nine cases a day per 100,000 people, indicating community spread and the need for rigorous testing and tracing.

• Orange: Ten to 24 cases a day per 100,000 people, showing “accelerated spread,” and stay-at-home orders are advised.

• Red: Twenty-five or more a day cases per 100,000 people, meaning the county is at a “tipping point” and stay-at-home orders are necessary.

You can find the tool by clicking here.

Which Kansas counties are at highest risk?

Overall, the state falls in the yellow category with about 10 new cases a day per 100,000 people across a seven-day average from June 22-28.

But four counties are in the “tipping point” red category, when the Harvard experts say it’s necessary to issue stay-at-home orders. The counties are Grant, Ford, Wyandotte and Seward.

In Grant County, the total cases doubled to 48 during the seven-day period used by the Harvard resource, according to the health department. That led to the highest growth rate in the state per capita with 44 new cases a day per 100,000 people during seven-day period, data show.

Ford County added 34 cases a day per 100,000 people, while Wyandotte and Seward added about 31 a day per 100,000 people.

Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Lee Norman predicted Wednesday that the number of statewide cases will steepen even more after increasing since reopening, The Kansas City Star reported. Gov. Laura Kelly issued a order requiring Kansans to wear masks in public beginning Friday.

A look across the U.S.

Across the country, Arizona (42.2), Florida (29.1) and Mississippi (25.4) ranked highest in new cases daily per 100,000 people, and each state was in the red category.

Another 13 states — mostly in the South and West — were in the orange category. South Carolina, Texas, Georgia, California, North Carolina and Idaho are among the states.

Only two states — Vermont and Hawaii — were in the low-risk green category with one new case a day per 100,000 people.

“Unless and until there is a whole of government response, with measurable progress communicated similarly and regularly across every state and locality, U.S. leaders will be left to react to the chaos of the virus — rather than being able to more effectively target interventions to suppress it,” Beth Cameron, vice president for global biological policy and programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, said in a statement about the Harvard tool.

This story was originally published July 1, 2020 at 7:03 PM with the headline "Four counties at COVID-19 ‘tipping point’ in Kansas, data show. Here’s what it means."