New FAA forecast sees piston aircraft fleet in sharp decline

The Federal Aviation Administration thinks long-term growth in the general aviation aircraft fleet will come from business jets, turboprops and helicopters, while fixed-wing piston engine aircraft will shrink.

The FAA’s Aerospace Forecast, released Thursday, said the active general aviation fleet is projected to grow 0.2 percent a year between 2015 and 2036, from 203,880 estimated aircraft in 2015 to 210,695 by 2036.

It expects turbine aircraft — including jets, helicopters and turboprops — to grow at a faster pace during the period, 2.1 percent a year for a total of 15,600 aircraft.

But the fixed-wing piston airplane fleet is forecast to shrink 0.6 percent annually, a decline of 17,500 aircraft over 21 years, the report said.

The forecast is relevant to Bombardier Learjet and area suppliers but especially to Textron Aviation, which, in addition to the manufacture of Cessna Citation business jets, makes piston-engine Cessna 172s, 182s, T206s and TTxs at its Independence plant, as well as Beechcraft Barons and Bonanzas at its east Wichita plant.

Of the 697 airplanes Textron Aviation delivered in 2015, 312 were piston-engine airplanes, according to data from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association.

A Textron Aviation spokeswoman said the company wouldn’t comment on the FAA’s forecast.

This story was originally published March 24, 2016 at 2:57 PM with the headline "New FAA forecast sees piston aircraft fleet in sharp decline."