Airline group revises 20-year passenger forecast lower

The trade group for international airlines has lowered its 20-year passenger forecast because of the global economy and, in particular, slower economic-growth projections in China.

The International Air Transport Association said it is forecasting global passengers to reach 7 billion by 2034, or a 3.8 percent annual average growth demand.

That’s slightly down from an earlier IATA forecast of 7.4 billion passengers in 2034, or a 4.1 percent average annual growth rate.

“Economic and political events over the last year have impacted some of the fundamentals for growth,” Tony Tyler, IATA director general and CEO, said in a news release. “As a result, we expect some 400 million fewer people to be traveling in 2034 than we did at this time last year.

“Air transport is a critical part of the global economy. And policy-makers should take note of its sensitivity. The economic impact of 400 million fewer travelers is significant. Each is a lost opportunity to explore, create social and cultural value, and generate economic and employment opportunities.”

Forecasts such as IATA’s are important to companies such as Wichita-based Spirit AeroSystems, which manufactures major components of a number of commercial airliners for Airbus and Boeing, including the complete fuselage of the Boeing 737.

Despite the effects of slower growth in China, the country is still expected to lead the world in passenger growth over the next two decades. IATA projects China will add 758 million new passengers for a total of 1.196 billion over the period. The U.S. is expected to add the second-highest number of airline passengers, 523 million new passengers for a total of 1.156 billion, over the next 20 years, IATA said.

The forecast also said in the next two decades India will displace the United Kingdom as the third-largest market, and Japan, Spain, Germany and France will fall relative to their competitors including Indonesia and Brazil.

Italy, the forecast said, will fall out of the world’s 10 biggest airline passenger markets during the period.

This story was originally published November 27, 2015 at 10:45 AM with the headline "Airline group revises 20-year passenger forecast lower."