Forecast: Holiday air travel this year not so joyous

People who will travel by air for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays can expect full flights, higher ticket prices, delays and bags that may or may not arrive at the same time they do.

That’s according to a holiday airline travel forecast released Thursday by Wichita State University, a report that was accompanied by a news conference on the school’s campus.

The forecast, produced by WSU associate marketing professor and Airline Quality Rating co-author Dean Headley, said for seasoned air travelers, the most noticeable difference this year compared with last year will be higher ticket prices.

That’s simply a function of more people wanting to travel by air during the holidays and airlines’ ability to raise fares because of higher demand, Headley said.

“They’re going to price to their cost and push the price to the envelope,” he said. “People will find the system a little more tense.”

By tense, Headley means consolidation in the airline industry over the past few years could mean fewer flights, fewer available seats and less time between connecting flights. Plus, Headley said, a satisfactory customer experience is not always at the top of an airline’s list.

“Air travel is a difficult challenge at best,” Headley said. “During the holiday season, that ramps up.

“I’m not altogether sure the airlines care what the travelers want or don’t want. They have a product to offer — traveling from A to B. The customer is not always first in their mind; profit and function of their system is first in their mind.”

He said the availability of seats and the number of flights will vary depending on where the traveler is flying to and from. Smaller markets, like Wichita, might have fewer flights or seats because airlines are moving equipment around, matching the size of the aircraft with the demand at a particular airport.

“(Capacity) is reduced at some markets and airports but increased at others,” Headley said.

New Wichita terminal

Valerie Wise, air service and business development manager with Wichita Eisenhower National Airport, said consumers shouldn’t expect a great bargain on fares this season.

But she added that the overall travel experience out of the Wichita airport will be improved because of its new terminal, which opened earlier this year.

“Flights have been full,” Wise said. “I do expect that fares will likely be a little higher this season, which is basically a product of supply and demand.

“Because of the improvements at our airport, though, we’ll have a more spacious ticketing wing, expanded security area, some of the latest body scanner technology and a parking garage. It’s an improved experience for air travelers.”

Headley recommends travelers book their flights now for travel around Thanksgiving and Christmas, to take advantage of the seats that are available. Headley said air travelers should also prepare themselves for arriving late to their connections or final destinations.

“December and January typically have the worst on-time arrival percentage and mishandled baggage rates of any month,” he said.

That’s not just a function of a full airline system, he said, but also bad weather. Headley added that it’s best to shop around during specific days of the week — usually the middle of the work week — where fares could prove to be a better deal.

Drive or fly?

While gas prices have dipped to their lowest levels in years — the price of a gallon of unleaded hovered slightly about $2 Thursday in Wichita — Headley said consumers should have no illusions that lower fuel costs for airlines will be passed along to the consumer.

“We haven’t seen any of that (savings) returned to consumers, that I know of,” Headley said. “Because gasoline prices are down, you’re not going to see prices for airline tickets go down.

“People will have a choice — do I drive or do I fly? If it’s not too far, driving could certainly be cheaper this year. We’ll have to see how that plays out.”

Headley also stressed that the assistance of a travel agent can also save consumers time and the potential headaches associated with air travel and logistics, a sentiment shared by Bailey Gaither of Air Capital Travel in Wichita.

“The holidays are a stressful time and travel is one less thing for you to worry about,” Gaither said. “If there are any hiccups in your trip — such as a family illness or delayed or missed connections — we take care of it.”

A lot of Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home during the holidays — more than 98 million did so last year, according to motorist club AAA — so any amount of planning and bargain hunting is likely to help, Headley said.

“Two months out is not all that early,” Headley said. “My advice is always this: If you see a fare you can live with, buy it because you probably won’t see much difference in the future.”

This story was originally published September 10, 2015 at 10:30 AM with the headline "Forecast: Holiday air travel this year not so joyous."