Air Capital Insider

New forecast favors higher sales of small, midsize biz jets

Independent aviation industry analyst Brian Foley sees shipments increasing but values declining in the next 10 years.
Independent aviation industry analyst Brian Foley sees shipments increasing but values declining in the next 10 years.

Industry analyst Brian Foley is betting that the number of business jet shipments will rise but their value will decline.

That’s according to Foley’s forecast, released Monday, which projects higher business jet shipments in next 10 years, but at a lower value.

Foley said the value will be lower because the greatest number of aircraft shipped will be cheaper small and midsize business jets. Shipments of large-cabin jets, with much bigger price tags, will trend down at the same time.

“Even though there’s more jets going out the door, their value is not as great as the big jets that aren’t selling as well,” Foley said in an interview on Monday.

Foley added that the categories of business jets he forecasts as selling well are “the types of aircraft that Wichita manufactures,” such as jets made by Textron Aviation and Bombardier Learjet.

Foley is forecasting 8,594 jet deliveries between 2015 and 2024 with a total value of $238 billion. The peak shipment year of his forecast will be 2019. He said even though shipments begin to trend downward after that year, “it’s not falling off a cliff like 2009. It’s a little more gentle, and more typical actually.”

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