Economic forecast: Wichita won’t recover all of its lost jobs until 2021

A new forecast in a report by the U.S. Conference of Mayors says that Wichita won’t regain all the jobs it lost in the recession and aftermath until 2021.

Wichita lost more than 33,000 jobs in the recession and following recovery. The report doesn’t expect Wichita to regain all of those jobs until the first quarter of 2021, five years from now and 12 years after the 2008 peak.

According to the report by respected economic forecasting firm IHS, 232 U.S. metro areas have already reclaimed their earlier peak employment, but 149, including Wichita, have not.

Wichita peaked in October 2008 with 313,900 jobs and bottomed out in July 2011 with 280,600 jobs. For a few years after the bottom, Wichita gained jobs slowly, but that changed last fall with a sharp uptick in job growth.

As of November, the most recent month available, the Wichita area had 299,500 jobs, putting it about halfway to regaining the jobs it lost.

Malcolm Harris, an economist and professors at Friends University, said that 2021 seems too pessimistic.

“I can’t imagine it will be another five years before it comes back,” he said. “Of course, the problems of the oil and gas industry aren’t doing the local economy any favors, and general aviation is still in a big hole.”

The good news may be that the Wichita economy appears to really be diversifying. About half of the 33,000 jobs cut during the recession and its aftermath were in the aircraft industry, and half in other sectors, from restaurants to hospitals to accounting firms. Since hitting bottom, almost all sectors – except the aircraft industry – have recovered to near or above their 2008 peak.

Only the aircraft industry hasn’t rebounded. It remains down about 14,000 workers from 2008, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the IHS forecast, 2016 may be a better year economically than 2015, with faster economic real growth, 1.9 percent, and job growth, 1.8 percent.

This story was originally published January 21, 2016 at 9:33 AM with the headline "Economic forecast: Wichita won’t recover all of its lost jobs until 2021."