Rising temperatures will disproportionately affect Kansas farmers
As the climate warms, growing corn and soybeans will become an increasingly risky venture for Kansas farmers, according to a recent study by K-State. The study found that drought and heat are currently the biggest reason for crop yield losses and expect that these losses will become more common because of climate change.
The study found that if temperatures rise another 1 degree Celsius or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, risks to crop yields will increase by 32% for corn and 11% for soybeans.
Three K-State agricultural economists conducted the study that looked at weather data and “Cause of Loss” data, maintained by the USDA Risk Management Agency, over 25 years in every state east of the 100th Meridian. The 100th Meridian West goes through Dodge City and divides the country from humid eastern states to arid western states, where crops depend more heavily on irrigation.
“Kansas is having a relatively larger increase in crop risk as a response to a one-degree Celsius warming, compared to the other parts of the country,” said Jisang Yu, assistant professor of agriculture economics at K-State.
Most of Kansas fall into the top 20% percentile for the predicted increase in crop risk for corn and soybeans, according to Yu. On average, the southern U.S. will be hit harder by rising temperatures.
While federally subsidized crop insurance can be a safety net, farmers must still pay premiums, which are based on how risky production is, meaning as the temperature warms and yield risk rises, premiums could increase as well.
“Since the federal crop insurance program is a highly subsidized government program and it relies on taxpayer dollars, that means that there’s the potential for that to cost more money, not only out of farmers’ pockets but potentially taxpayers’ pockets,” said Edward Perry, assistant professor in agriculture economics at K-State. “That would suggest that in so far as efforts are put forth to mitigate (climate change), it would be offsetting those extra costs potentially.”
This study was the first time researchers have used this data to show how temperature impacts the riskiness of growing crops, according to Perry.
The study wanted to quantify yield risk and the likelihood of having a year so bad, farmers have to have an insurance payout and found that yield risk would be increased by 32% for corn and 11% for soybeans.
“We could infer that it’s not going to be exactly this number, but this is some sort of benchmark number that increases the premiums that farms are going to face for crop insurance,” Yu said. “It would be something close to these two numbers if climate change happened at a one-degree Celsius warming scenario.”
These numbers are averages and the effects of climate change on crops differ dramatically based on the geographical region.
“If you go to the northern United States, where it’s generally cooler and you increase the temperature by one degree there, it will actually decrease yield risk slightly there,” Perry said. “But as you come south and if we were to increase temperatures by one degree, then there would be an increase in your risk.”
From drought to excess moisture to wind, the reasons why farmers lose their crops are recorded in “Cause of loss” records. In warmer years, the most common reason was drought, then heat stress. During these warmer years, other causes like excess moisture and cold decrease.
“The increase in drought and heat stress losses outweigh the reduction in cold and excess moisture losses, so you get more losses when you have a warmer summer or warmer growing season,” Perry said.
This story was originally published October 23, 2020 at 5:01 AM.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this story said 1 degree Celsius equals 34 degrees Fahrenheit, instead of noting the difference between 1 degree in Celsius and 1 degree in Fahrenheit. 1 degree in Celsius is equal to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
