What the Producers Guild of America nominations mean for the best picture Oscar race

The Producers Guild of America announced its nominations Tuesday, and since they are a notable precursor to what will be nominated for a best picture Oscar, the guild’s choices shook things up a bit.

The nominees:

“The Big Short”

“Bridge of Spies”

“Brooklyn”

“Ex Machina”

“Mad Max: Fury Road”

“The Martian”

“The Revenant”

“Sicario”

“Spotlight”

“Straight Outta Compton”

So what does this mean for other films’ best picture nomination chances? Here are five points to be taken from the PGA nominations:

1. “Carol” and “Room” suffer a stifling blow.

Many expected both films to be solid choices for Oscar nominations, and they have fared well with other awards groups. But their omission from the PGA nominations is glaring and could alter their Oscar best picture chances.

It could also shake things up in the best actress category. Cate Blanchett was perceived to be a shoo-in nominee for “Carol” and Brie Larson was the leading contender to win the Oscar for “Room” – until Tuesday. Whether the PGA omissions make them more vulnerable is unclear, but PGA nominations certainly would have added more fuel to their films’ overall Oscar chances.

2. “Sicario” and “Ex Machina” came out of nowhere.

Both films were critical darlings and did well in many top 10 lists, but they seemed to be fading from the Oscar best picture race. But both proved they have staying power, especially “Ex Machina.” It came out in the spring. That was, like, forever ago to industry voters.

Interestingly, A24 – the distributor behind “Ex Machina” – got a wake-up call of a different sort. It is also the distributor behind “Room,” and they had been focusing all their awards energy behind that film. Maybe it’s time to regroup?

3. The Force is not strong with “Star Wars” or “Creed.”

The PGA is probably more likely to nominate a movie blockbuster than the Academy (they nominated “Star Trek” and “Bridesmaids” when Oscar didn’t), so neither film showing up on the PGA list is a bit of a downer. It’s rare that a giant hit that didn’t get a PGA nomination would go on to get an Oscar nomination for best picture. The last film to do so was “The Blind Side” in 2009.

4. “Beasts of No Nation” and “Trumbo” were too iffy.

Both did well with the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globes, but their Oscar best picture chances were slim, at best, and the PGA just points that out. A PGA nomination would have helped both films’ Oscar best picture chances significantly, but no such luck.

5. “Straight Outta Compton” was the nicest surprise.

A best picture nomination for this film could lend some much-needed diversity to this year’s Oscar race. The PGA nomination certainly helps.

This story was originally published January 6, 2016 at 6:12 PM with the headline "What the Producers Guild of America nominations mean for the best picture Oscar race."