The 2021 Oscars are happening! Here are Movie Maniac’s predictions.

The 93rd Academy Awards are going to be very different this year, in the wake of a global pandemic.

As such, the Academy delayed the ceremony by about two months and extended the eligibility window to accommodate films released in 2020 through February 2021. It also allowed films that were forced to be released on digital platforms to be eligible for Oscars.

The ceremony will return to the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, as well as separate live locations at Union Station in L.A., a space in the U.K. and another in Paris, according to CNN. Only nominees, their guest and presenters will be allowed to attend. There will not be a traditional red carpet arrival this year.

The ceremony airs at 7 p.m. CT, Sunday, April 25, on ABC. It is preceded by an Oscars special, “Into the Spotlight,” at 5:30 p.m. CT. Another special, “Oscars After Dark” starts at 10:35 p.m. CT. (Well, if the Oscars don’t run long, which they never do, right?).

But everything aside, it all comes down to the movies, and there are certainly a fine crop of nominees this year. Here are my predictions in major categories.

BEST PICTURE

• “The Father”
• “Judas and the Black Messiah”
• “Mank”
• “Minari”
• “Nomadland”
• “Promising Young Woman”
• “Sound of Metal”
• “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

“Mank” leads the night with the most nominations with 10. But it will be hard to beat “Nomadland,” which has pretty much swept all the precursor awards. It’s certainly deserving, a sparse yet sprawling tale of a woman who embarks on a journey through the American West, living in her van. The film slowly emerges as intensely atmospheric and empathetic. But for me, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” was a gripping, triumphant experience.

Oscar prediction: “Nomadland”

My vote: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

DIRECTING

• Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
• David Fincher, “Mank”
• Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
• Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
• Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”

For the first time in Oscar history, two women, Zhao and Fennell, have been nominated in the same year. (Zhao is also the first woman of color to be nominated for directing.) Both are first time nominees (and it’s Fennell’s feature directing debut, a major feat).

Vinterberg and Chung are also first-time nominees. This is Fincher’s third nomination (after 2008’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and 2010’s “The Social Network”). But none of them are getting buzz to win, though Fincher could be a surprise upset.

But that seems unlikely, as all signals point to Zhao, for her delicate, ethereal work on “Nomadland.” She coaxed realistic performances from non-professional actors, and refused to rush her story, instead letting it breathe at its own pace. If she wins, Zhao will become the first woman of color to win a directing Oscar and only the second woman to win (after Kathryn Bigelow for 2008’s “The Hurt Locker”).

Oscar prediction: Zhao

My vote: Zhao

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
• Andra Day, “The United States Vs. Billie Holiday”
• Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces Of A Woman”
• Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
• Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

Day and Kirby are first-time nominees.

This is Mulligan’s second lead actress nomination (after 2009’s “An Education”).

McDormand has won two lead actress Oscars (1996’s “Fargo” and 2017’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; she was also nominated for supporting for 2005’s “North Country,” 2000’s “Almost Famous” and 1988’s “Mississippi Burning”; she’s also nominated this year for best picture as one of the producers for “Nomadland”).

And Davis is now the most nominated African-American actress, with her fourth nomination (after leading for 2011’s “The Help” and supporting for 2008’s “Doubt”; she won supporting for 2016’s “Fences”).

This is the closest category of the night, and the hardest to call, as the precursor awards were pretty spread out. Day won the Golden Globe, while Davis won the Screen Actors Guild award, McDormand won the BAFTAs and Mulligan won the Critics Choice Award.

The Oscar could go to any of them and deservedly so. But I think it’s closest between Davis, McDormand and Mulligan. Davis was absolutely riveting as a feisty blues singer, while McDormand was achingly resonant as a woman searching for meaning on the open road (she could benefit from her film being a best picture favorite). For my money, though, Mulligan shined and showed detailed range in a powerful performance as a young woman hellbent on seeking revenge.

It could still go any way, but I’m going to go out on a limb here.

Oscar prediction: Davis

My vote: Mulligan

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
• Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
• Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
• Gary Oldman, “Mank”
• Steven Yeun, “Minari”

This is Hopkins’ sixth nomination (leading for 1993’s “The Remains of the Day” and 1995’s “Nixon,” supporting for 1997’s “Amistad” and 2019’s “The Two Popes”; he won lead actor for 1991’s “The Silence of the Lambs”).

It’s the third lead actor nomination for Oldman (2011’s “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”; he won for 2017’s “The Darkest Hour”).

And it’s the first nomination for everyone else.

Ahmed is the first person of Pakistani descent and the first Muslim actor to be nominated for best actor, while Yeun is the first Asian-American to be nominated for best actor.

Boseman, who died from cancer last year, becomes the seventh actor to receive a posthumous nomination. He joins Heath Ledger, James Dean, Peter Finch and others who were nominated after their deaths.

All nominees here gave Oscar-worthy performances on many levels and in very different roles.

But Boseman has been the awards favorite so far, sweeping most of the precursor awards, and he will most certainly win the Oscar (if he doesn’t, it’ll be a huge upset). It’s absolutely deserving for his fiery, commanding performance as a talented and ambitious cornet player. It’s too bad he’s not here to accept the award, but it’s nice that Oscar will pay tribute to him and his legacy with this honor.

Oscar prediction: Boseman

My vote: Boseman

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
• Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
• Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
• Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
• Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”

For the first time in Oscar history, three African-American performers (Kaluuya, Odom Jr. and Stanfield) are nominated in the same category in the same year.

Only Kaluuya has been nominated before (leading for 2017’s “Get Out”).

All the performances are strong (Cohen particularly proves himself to be a chameleon yet again). But I’m surprised Kaluuya and Stanfield are nominated here, because they both are essentially lead roles, but in an ensemble cast.

But Kaluuya has swept nearly all the precursor awards, and should be victorious here, too. His performance as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton is revelatory. He will become the sixth African-American ton win best supporting actor (though there will have been seven wins; Mahershala Ali won twice in the past.)

Oscar prediction: Kaluuya

My vote: Kaluuya

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
• Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
• Olivia Colman, “The Father”
• Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
• Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”

Close ties Peter O’Toole for the most Oscar nominations in acting categories without a win, with eight (supporting for 1982’s “The World According to Garp,” 1983’s “The Big Chill” and 1984’s “The Natural,” leading for 1987’s “Fatal Attraction,” 1988’s “Dangerous Liaisons,” 2011’s “Albert Nobbs” and 2017’s “The Wife”).

This is Colman’s second nomination (after winning lead actress for 2017’s “The Favourite,” an upset against Close).

It’s the first nomination for everyone else (Bakalova is the first Bulgarian actor nominated for an Oscar, while Youn is the first Korean nominee in an acting category).

This is a particularly close race, as well, though we can probably count out Close, whose performance neared caricature (she also received a Razzie award nomination for worst supporting actress for this same performance).

Bakalova turned in a daring performance in a much improvised role, but she’s not getting any buzz to win. Neither is Seyfried.

So it really comes down to Colman and Youn. But Youn won the SAG and BAFTA awards, and I think she’ll win here, too, with a lively yet heartbreaking performance with hardly any English lines, a rare feat.

Oscar prediction: Youn

My vote: Youn

In other categories

Animated Feature Film

“Onward”

“Over the Moon”

“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”

“Soul”

“Wolfwalkers”

Prediction: “Soul”

Animated Short Film

“Burrow”

“Genius Loci”

“If Anything Happens I Love You”

“Opera”

“Yes-People”

Prediction: “If Anything Happens I Love You”

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

“The Father”

“Nomadland”

“One Night in Miami”

“The White Tiger”

Prediction: “Nomadland”

Writing (Original Screenplay)

“Judas and the Black Messiah”

“Minari”

“Promising Young Woman”

“Sound of Metal”

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Prediction: “Promising Young Woman”

Cinematography

“Judas and the Black Messiah”

“Mank”

“News of the World”

“Nomadland”

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Prediction: “Nomadland”

Costume Design

“Emma”

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

“Mank”

“Mulan”

“Pinocchio”

Prediction: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

Documentary Feature

“Collective”

“Crip Camp”

“The Mole Agent”

“My Octopus Teacher”

“Time”

Prediction: “My Octopus Teacher”

Documentary Short Subject

“Colette”

“A Concerto Is a Conversation”

“Do Not Split”

“Hunger Ward”

“A Love Song for Latasha”

Prediction: “A Love Song for Latasha”

Film Editing

“The Father”

“Nomadland”

“Promising Young Woman”

“Sound of Metal”

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Prediction: “Sound of Metal”

Music (Original Score)

“Da 5 Bloods”

“Mank”

“Minari”

“News of the World”

“Soul”

Prediction: “Soul”

Music (Original Song)

“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”

“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”

“Io S (Seen)“ from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)“

“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami...”

Prediction: “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami...”

Live Action Short Film

“Feeling Through”

“The Letter Room”

“The Present”

“Two Distant Strangers”

“White Eye”

Prediction: “Two Distant Strangers”

Sound

“Greyhound”

“Mank”

“News of the World”

“Soul”

“Sound of Metal”

Prediction: “Sound of Metal”

International Feature Film

“Another Round,” Denmark

“Better Days,” Hong Kong

“Collective,” Romania

“The Man Who Sold His Skin,” Tunisia

“Quo Vadis, Aida?,” Bosnia and Herzegovina

Prediction: “Another Round”

Makeup and Hairstyling

“Emma”

“Hillbilly Elegy”

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

“Mank”

“Pinocchio”

Prediction: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

Production Design

“The Father”

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

“Mank”

“News of the World”

“Tenet”

Prediction: “Mank”

Visual Effects

“Love and Monsters”

“The Midnight Sky”

“Mulan”

“The One and Only Ivan”

“Tenet”

Prediction: “Tenet”

Reach Rod Pocowatchit at rodrick@rawdzilla.com

This story was originally published April 25, 2021 at 4:07 AM with the headline "The 2021 Oscars are happening! Here are Movie Maniac’s predictions.."