Oscar nomination predictions 2018: ‘Shape of Water,’ ‘Lady Bird’ among big hitters

We’re finally at that last stretch of movie awards season: The Oscars!

And the nominations announcement is going live again – sort of. Last year, much grumbling was made about the Oscar nominations announcement because they weren’t presented in a live feed with media present (a pre-taped recording was instead aired).

This year, “below the line” categories (read: the technical ones) will be announced via a pre-taped segment at 7:22 a.m. Tuesday, Jan. 23, via a live global stream on Oscar.com, Oscars.org, the Academy’s digital platforms, a satellite feed and local broadcasters.

Then at 7:38 a.m. Tuesday, “above the line” categories (such as acting, directing, best picture, etc.) will be announced in a live broadcast.

The Oscars ceremony will be March 4, televised live on ABC. As previously announced, late-night talk show favorite Jimmy Kimmel will return as host.

There are some pretty interesting things happening in some of the categories this year, some being rocked by politics, the social climate and even scandal, making it especially hard to predict who will be nominated this year. There will most certainly be surprises.

Here’s who I think will make the cut in major categories.

Best picture

There can be up to 10 nominees and as few as five. I think there will be seven:

“Call Me By Your Name”

“Dunkirk”

“Get Out”

“Lady Bird”

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

“The Post”

“The Shape of Water”

In a dream world: “Wonder Woman” gets nominated.

Director

These are pretty much locks:

Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”

Jordan Peele, “Get Out”

Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Guillermo Del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

The last slot is up for grabs, but I hope it is:

Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”

But if it’s not her, it will be:

Steven Spielberg, “The Post”

In a dream world: Dee Rees gets nominated for deftly handling a stellar ensemble cast in “Mudbound.”

Lead actor

The biggest question here is if James Franco will still get a nomination after sexual misconduct accusations that came out right after he won the Golden Globe for best actor in a comedy or musical and right before Oscar nomination ballots were due. That being said:

Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

But if Franco indeed does not make the cut, it will be:

Tom Hanks, “The Post”

And if not him, then:

Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

In a dream world: James McAvoy gets nominated for showing such a wide range as a man with multiple personalities in “Split.”

Lead actress

This is pretty much a lock; anyone else making it in will be a major upset:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Meryl Streep, “The Post”

But if there were an upset, it would be:

Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”

In a dream world: McDormand goes all the way for the win.

Supporting actor

This is a very crowded category with strong contenders, but these are pretty much locks:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”

Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”

Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Then it gets trickier, but could be:

Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”

Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

And if not one of those two, then:

Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”

In a dream world: Patrick Stewart gets nominated for his aging, ailing Professor X in “Logan.”

Supporting actress

These should be locks:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”

Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”

Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

The last slot is tricky. But I think it will be:

Hong Chau, “Downsizing”

But if it’s not her, then:

Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

In a dream world: Tiffany Haddish would get nominated for her hilarious turn in “Girls Trip.”

This story was originally published January 18, 2018 at 5:37 PM with the headline "Oscar nomination predictions 2018: ‘Shape of Water,’ ‘Lady Bird’ among big hitters."