Oscar predictions 2017: Expect love for ‘La La Land’
It’s Oscars time, and love is in the air.
Especially for the wistful romantic musical “La La Land,” which should be the frontrunner in many categories.
But as always, there will be surprises – that’s what makes trying to predict the winners so hard. It’s futile to try to outguess the Academy, anyway. But it’s always fun to try.
Here are my predictions in major categories.
Best picture
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
“La La Land” has already made history by tying with “Titanic” and “All About Eve” for the most nominations for a film with 14. And it’s pretty much the front-runner to go all the way. The only real upsets would be if indie darling “Moonlight” or “Hidden Figures,” which pulled a late-game surprise win at the Screen Actors Guild awards for best ensemble (their version of best picture), edges in, but I don’t think either will.
“La La Land” is a sweet, sparkling love letter to Los Angeles, old-school romance and movies, and it left me soaring. A best picture win might seem like Hollywood is patting itself on the back, but that’s what the Oscars are about, anyway, right?
Oscar prediction and my vote: “La La Land”
Lead actor
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Only Garfield is a first-time nominee for his earnest turn as a real-life conscientious objector who won the medal of honor without ever picking up a weapon. It’s nice to see him nominated, but he won’t win.
Neither will previous nominee Mortensen (lead actor for 2007’s “Eastern Promises”) as a Bohemian father, despite a very moving and thoughtful performance that’s certainly deserving of the nomination.
Gosling (previous lead acting nominee for 2007’s “Half Nelson”) impressively sings, dances and plays his own instruments in “La La Land,” and he could benefit from a wave of love for the film, but it’s doubtful.
It really comes down to previous nominee Affleck (supporting actor for 2007’s “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”) and two-time previous winner Washington (supporting for 1990’s “Glory” and lead for 2002’s “Training Day”), and it’s the absolute hardest to call of the night.
Affleck seemed to be in the lead throughout December and into January, but then Washington pulled an upset win at the SAG awards, and that changed everything.
Most industry insiders are tipping the scales toward Washington, who is so impressive as a man who treats his family so horribly that he makes you hate him.
But I still think Affleck will edge in, with an roiling, heartbreaking performance as a man suffocating with grief. But it’s really a coin toss.
Oscar prediction and my vote: Affleck
Lead actress
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
First-timer Negga is a surprise nominee as a woman imprisoned for marrying a white man in 1950s Virginia, so she is the long shot.
And three-time winner Streep (supporting for 1980’s “Kramer vs. Kramer,” lead for 1983’s “Sophie’s Choice” and lead for 2012’s “The Iron Lady”) will have to be happy with her 20th nomination, the most of any performer, because she’s not getting any buzz to win, either.
It’s nice to see acting vet Huppert get her first nomination at age 63 as a woman who goes in search of the man who raped her. She could get the sentimental vote, and she’s not out of the picture.
Neither is previous winner Portman (lead actress for 2010’s “Black Swan”), who seemed to be in the lead throughout December for her bravura turn as Jackie Kennedy, but Golden Globe and SAG losses seemed to dim her chances. But it’s certainly an Oscar-worthy performance.
But right now, all lights seem to shine on previous nominee Stone – supporting for 2014’s “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” – for her glorious performance as an actress struggling to make it in L.A. while falling in love. She’s absolutely radiant in a role that is actually underwritten. But she brings it fully to life with swelling emotions, and nails that final audition scene in a triumph.
Oscar prediction and my vote: Stone
Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
First-time nominee Hedges more than held his own against Affleck as a stubborn teen, and it’s nice to see him nominated, at age 19, no less. But he’s one of the long shots here.
So is previous nominee Shannon (supporting for 2009’s “Revolutionary Road”), who came out of nowhere to nab a nomination as a hard-bitten Texan cop.
First-time nominee Patel is very good in “Lion” as a young man trying to find his birth father, but it’s really a leading role. He did win the British Academy of Film and Television Arts supporting actor award, though, and that could benefit him here with a surprise win. It’s doubtful but not out of the picture.
It really comes down to previous winner Bridges (lead for 2010’s “Crazy Heart”) and first-time nominee Ali.
Bridges is excellent as a weary Texas Ranger, and brings a robust crankiness to the role. He could very well win his second Oscar, and it’s a worthy performance.
But most signs point to Ali as a drug dealer with a big heart. It’s a small but important role, and he brings a thoughtful kindness to his streetwise character.
Oscar prediction: Ali
My vote: Bridges
Supporting actress
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Only Harris is a first-time nominee, well deserved for her frenetic performance as a crack-addicted mother.
Previous winner Spencer (supporting for 2012’s “The Help”) is likeable in “Hidden Figures” as a NASA accountant, while previous winner Kidman (lead for 2003’s “The Hours”) is richly emotional as a mother trying to raise adopted sons.
And previous nominee Williams (supporting for 2006’s “Brokeback Mountain,” lead for 2011’s “Blue Valentine,” lead for 2012’s “My Week with Marilyn”) is absolutely riveting as a mother grappling with guilt and grief.
But none of them will win, because this is the easiest call of the night: previous nominee Davis (supporting for 2009’s “Doubt” and lead for 2012’s “The Help”) will be triumphant, and finally win an Oscar for her masterful work as a wife dealing with a turbulent husband.
Oscar prediction and my vote: Davis
Directing
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
This signals a welcome comeback for previous winner Gibson (as producer and director of 1996’s “Braveheart”), whose past bad-boy behavior seemed like it would always hinder him. His work in “Ridge” is typically none too subtle, but the film’s emotional payoff is stunning.
First-time nominees Villeneuve and Jenkins did wonderfully restrained work with tone pieces that relied on atmosphere instead of theatrics.
And previous nominee Lonergan (writing for 2001’s “You Can Count on Me” and 2003’s “Gangs of New York”) again shows a deft skill exploring tumultuous relationships and coaxed magnificent performances from his cast.
But all signs point to Chazelle for his vibrant work on “La La Land” (he already won the Director’s Guild Award). His film is blissful and exuberant right from the start. And he gets bonus ultra cool points for orchestrating those dazzling long takes. He will become the youngest best director winner at the ripe old age of 32.
Oscar prediction and my vote: Chazelle
89th Academy Awards
When: 7:30 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 26. Red carpet coverage begins at 6 p.m.
Where: ABC
Host: Jimmy Kimmel
Rod’s other Oscar picks
Animated Feature Film: “Kubo and the Two Strings,” “Moana,” “My Life as a Zucchini,” “The Red Turtle,” “Zootopia”
Prediction: “Zootopia”
Cinematography: “Arrival,” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Moonlight,” “Silence”
Prediction: “La La Land”
Costume design: “Allied,” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” “Florence Foster Jenkins,” “Jackie,” “La La Land”
Prediction: “Jackie”
Documentary feature: “Fire at Sea,” “I am Not Your Negro,” “Life Animated,” “OJ: Made in America,” “13th”
Prediction: “O.J.: Made in America”
Film editing: “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” La La Land,” “Moonlight”
Prediction: “La La Land”
Foreign Language Film: “Land of Mine,” Denmark; “A Man Called Ove,” Sweden; “The Salesman,” Iran; “Tanna,” Australia; “Toni Erdmann,” Germany.
Prediction: “Toni Erdmann”
Makeup and hairstyling: “A Man Called Ove,” “Star Trek Beyond,” “Suicide Squad”
Prediction: “Star Trek Beyond”
Original score: “Jackie,” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Moonlight,” “Passengers”
Prediction: “La La Land”
Original song: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” from “La La Land,” “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from “Trolls,” “City of Stars” from “La La Land,” “The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story,” “How Far I'll Go” from “Moana”
Prediction: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
Production design: “Arrival,” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” “Hail, Caesar!,” “La La Land,” “Passengers”
Prediction: “La La Land”
Short subject (animated): “Blind Vaysha,” “Borrowed Time,” “Pear Cider and Cigarettes,” “Pearl,” “Piper”
Prediction: “Piper”
Short subject (documentary): “Extremis,” “4.1 Miles,” “Joe’s Violin,” “Watani: My Homeland,” “The White Helmets”
Prediction: “The White Helmets”
Short subject (live action): “Ennemis Interieurs,” “La Femme et le TGV,” “Silent Nights,” “Sing,” “Timecode”
Prediction: “Timecode”
Sound editing: “Arrival,” “Deepwater Horizon,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “La La Land,” “Sully”
Prediction: “Hacksaw Ridge”
Sound mixing: “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “La La Land,” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”
Prediction: “La La Land”
Visual effects: “Deepwater Horizon,” “Doctor Strange,” “The Jungle Book,” “Kubo and the Two Strings,” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
Prediction: “The Jungle Book”
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): “Arrival” (Eric Heisserer), “Fences” (August Wilson), “Hidden Figures” (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi), “Lion” (Luke Davies), “Moonlight” (Barry Jenkins, story by Tarell Alvin McCraney)
Prediction: “Moonlight”
Writing (Original Screenplay): “Hell or High Water” (Taylor Sheridan), “La La Land” (Damien Chazelle), “The Lobster” (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou), “Manchester by the Sea” (Kenneth Lonergan), “20th Century Women” (Mike Mills)
Prediction: “La La Land”
Rod Pocowatchit
Oscar watch party
When: 5 p.m. Sunday. Feb. 26
Where: XY Bar, 235 N. Mosley
How much: Free; must be 21 to enter
On the bill: Ballot contest, Oscar trivia with prizes, swag bags, red carpet photos, free snacks. Hosted by The Eagle’s Rod Pocowatchit.
This story was originally published February 24, 2017 at 12:40 PM with the headline "Oscar predictions 2017: Expect love for ‘La La Land’."