From one Oscar after another – trying to outguess the Academy

Now this has been an Oscars awards season! Talk about unpredictable. Things got shaken up as early sure-things fizzled out, late-bloomers surged, and a horror film made Oscar history as the most nominated film ever (“Sinners,” with 16).

And there’s still room for surprises as we head into the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, taking place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. It will be televised live on ABC – the red carpet show begins at 6 p.m. and the awards start at 7. Conan O’Brien is hosting for the second year in a row.

Movie star presenters are lined up and ready to go. So sit back, grab your popcorn and fill out your own ballots to see how you compare to the Academy. Because what do they know?

It’s just one Oscar after another. Here are my predictions.

BEST PICTURE

• “Bugonia”
• “F1”
• “Frankenstein”
• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “The Secret Agent”
• “Sentimental Value”
• “Sinners”
• “Train Dreams.”

This year’s race has really come down to “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” While “Battle” has won major industry prizes like the Producers Guild Award and the Directors Guild of Award, “Sinners” has seen a late surge of support after its recent Actor Awards victories. The film is on fire right now, and even though most signs point to “Battle” for a win, I’m going to go out on a limb and say “Sinners” (my personal favorite) will pull an upset.

Oscar guess: “Sinners”

BEST ACTRESS

• Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
• Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
• Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
• Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
• Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue.”

It’s nice to see previous supporting actress nominee Hudson (for 2000’s “Almost Famous”) return to the Oscars, as well as two-time lead actress winner Stone (for 2024’s “Poor Things” and 2017’s “La La Land”), but neither are getting buzz to win here. Neither is first-time nominee Reinsve, despite a lovely, subdued performance.

First-time nominee Byrne was absolutely combustible as a drug-addicted mother grappling with her special needs daughter (and my personal choice). But first-time nominee Buckley is heart-breaking as a grieving mother in 16th century England.

Oscar guess: Buckley

BEST ACTOR

• Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
• Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
• Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
• Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
• Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent.”

Moura is a surprise nominee and not getting any buzz to win. Neither is previous winner DiCaprio (for 2016’s “The Revenant”), though his performance was appropriately frenetic.

With his fifth nomination (for acting and writing) Hawke was thought to have been a sentimental favorite, but has waned as of late. Don’t count him out, though.

That leaves two-time previous nominee Chalamet (after “Call Me By Your Name” and “A Complete Unknown”), who absolutely crushed it as a ping pong hustler (and my personal choice), and first-time nominee Jordan, who was the driving force of “Sinners.” I think his recent win at the Actors Awards will give him the edge. But I’d love to see Chalamet nab it.

Oscar guess: Jordan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
• Inga Ibsdotter LilIeaas, “Sentimental Value”
• Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
• Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
• Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another.”

All are first-time nominees except Madigan (as supporting in 1986’s “Twice in a Lifetime”). And while this category is traditionally one to shake things up, I think most signs point to Madigan to win. She’s an industry vet with years of experience, and it’s a deliciously dastardly role that she wholeheartedly owns.

Oscar guess: Madigan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
• Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
• Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
• Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
• Delroy Lindo, “Sinners.”

Two-time leading actor winner Penn (for 2004’s “Mystic River” and 2009’s “Milk”) seems the front-runner here among a string of vibrant performances that could still have surprises (especially Lindo). Skarsgård could win with, well, sentimental value, after a long and storied career (though isn’t his role really a leading one? Anyway.) My favorite though, was watching Elordi transform into the Creature, revealing the hurt beneath his ghastly facade. Who knew he had such a performance in him?

Oscar guess: Penn

DIRECTING

• Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
• Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
• Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
• Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
• Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value.”

This is Safdie’s first Oscars showing, impressively with four nominations for “Supreme” – it’s frenetic, calculated work. Zhao returns after winning directing for “Nomadland” with another somber but ultimately moving film. And Trier returns after being nominated for writing 2022’s “The Worst Person in the World,” with both writing and directing nominations for “Sentimental.”

And Coogler made Oscars history with the most-nominated film ever, at 16.

But with his fifth nomination (for writing, producing and directing), Anderson has basically cleared the table, taking home the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and DGA awards. And I think he’ll finally land his first Oscar for directing, well deserved for such a sprawling, chaotic production that never got overwhelming — and didn’t feel as long as it was.

Oscar guess: Anderson

OTHER CATEGORIES

Animated Film

“Arco”; “Elio”; “KPop Demon Hunters”; “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”; “Zootopia 2.”

Oscar guess: “KPop Demon Hunters”

Adapted Screenplay

“Bugonia”; Will Tracy; “Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro; “Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell; “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson; “Train Dreams,” Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar.

Oscar guess: “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson

Original Screenplay

“Blue Moon,” Robert Kaplow; “It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi, with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian; “Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie; “Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier; “Sinners,” Ryan Coogler.

Oscar guess: “Sinners,” Ryan Coogler

Casting

“Hamnet”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “The Secret Agent”; “Sinners.”

Oscar guess: “Sinners”

Cinematography

“Frankenstein”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “Sinners”; “Train Dreams.”

Oscar guess: “Sinners”

Costume Design

“Avatar: Fire and Ash”; “Frankenstein”; “Hamnet”; “Marty Supreme”; “Sinners.”

Oscar guess: “Frankenstein”

Documentary Feature

“The Perfect Neighbor”; “The Alabama Solution”; “Come See Me in the Good Light”; “Cutting Through Rocks”; “Mr. Nobody Against Putin.”

Oscar guess: “The Perfect Neighbor”

Documentary Short Film

“All the Empty Rooms”; “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”; “Children No More: Were and Are Gone”; “The Devil Is Busy”; “Perfectly a Strangeness.”

Oscar guess: “All the Empty Rooms”

Live Action Short Film

“Butcher’s Stain”; “A Friend of Dorothy”; “Jane Austen’s Period Drama”; “The Singers”; “Two People Exchanging Saliva.”

Oscar guess: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Animated Short Film

“Butterfly”; “Forevergreen”; “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”; “Retirement Plan”; “The Three Sisters.”

Oscar guess: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”

International Film

“The Secret Agent,” Brazil; “It Was Just an Accident,” France; “Sentimental Value,” Norway; “Sirât,” Spain; “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia.

Oscar guess: “Sentimental Value”

Film Editing

“F1”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “Sentimental Value”; “Sinners.”

Oscar guess: “One Battle After Another”

Makeup and Hairstyling

“Frankenstein”; “Kokuho”; “Sinners”; “The Smashing Machine”; “The Ugly Stepsister.”

Oscar guess: “Frankenstein”

Music – Original Song

“Golden” from “Kpop Demon Hunters”; “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”; “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”; “I Lied To You” from “Sinners”; “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”

Oscar guess: “Golden” from “Kpop Demon Hunters”

Music – Original Score

“Bugonia,” Jerskin Fendrix; “Frankenstein,” Alexandre Desplate; “Hamnet,” Max Richter; “One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood; “Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson.

Oscar guess: “Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson

Production Design

“Frankenstein”; “Hamnet”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “Sinners.”

Oscar guess: “Frankenstein”

Sound

“F1”; “Frankenstein”; “One Battle after Another”; “Sinners”; “Sirāt.”

Oscar guess: “F1”

Visual Effects

“Avatar: Fire and Ash”; “F1″; “Jurassic World Rebirth”; “The Lost Bus”; “Sinners.”

Oscar guess: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Reach Rod Pocowatchit at rodrick@rawdzilla.com.