Academy Award nominations predictions are futile but fun
Movie awards season is in full swing, with the recent announcement of the Actor Award (formerly SAG) nominations, and the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes having already handed out their awards.
Now it all comes to a peak with the announcement of the 98th annual Academy Awards nominations on Jan. 22, and some things are shaking up. What once were frontrunners have since faded into the background a little. And some long-shots are finding new steam.
The 98th Academy Awards will take place March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, and will be televised live on ABC.
Trying to outguess the Academy is futile, but any movie maniac loves to try. Here are my predictions in major categories. (Keep in mind this is who I think will be nominated, not necessarily should.)
BEST PICTURE
There will again be 10 nominees:
- “Blue Moon”
- “Bugonia
- “Frankenstein”
- “Hamnet”
- “Marty Supreme”
- “One Battle After Another”
- “Sentimental Value”
- “Sinners”
- “Train Dreams”
- “Wicked: For Good”
Keep an eye on “Sinners,” which has been generating a lot of buzz and shaking things up. It could be poised to earn 15 Oscar nominations, the most ever.
BEST DIRECTOR
This seems pretty locked in, especially after the announcement of the Directors Guild Awards:
- Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
- Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
- Guillermo Del Toro, ““Frankenstein”
- Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
- Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Safdie was a surprise showing on the DGA list, but it’s not unfathomable here, especially given the surge of “Supreme’s” popularity.
Possible shake-up: Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident.”
BEST ACTOR
This seems like a fairly locked category:
- Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
- Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
- Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
- Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Possible shake-up: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
BEST ACTRESS
There are some exciting offerings this year in a very over-crowded category:
- Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
- Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
- Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
- Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
- Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Possible shake-up: Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This seems pretty locked, except for a slot or two:
- Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
- Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
- Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
- Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
- Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Possible shake-up: Miles Caton, “Sinners”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This has always been the category for shake-ups, and this year already sees some once sure-things go up in the air. Nevertheless:
- Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
- Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
- Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
- Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Possible shake-ups: Odessa A’Zion, “Marty Supreme;” Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value.”
For a full list of Oscar nominations, go to https://www.oscars.org/ on Jan. 22.
Reach Rod Pocowatchit at rodrick@rawdzilla.com.