Academy Awards 2025 predictions: No single film will sweep the awards

Get ready for the movie lover’s Super Bowl. Oscars night is here.

The 97th Academy Awards take place at 6 p.m. on Sunday, airing on ABC. The official live red carpet show airs at 5:30 p.m. prior to the awards ceremony. The awards are also streaming live on Hulu for the first time.

Comedian and talk show star Conan O’Brien will be hosting for the first time.

The brash Netflix musical “Emilia Pérez” received the most nominations with 13, followed by “The Brutalist” and “Wicked” with 10 each.

As always, it’s anyone’s call with the Oscars, but I’ve been watching developments closely. Here are my predictions.

BEST PICTURE

• “Anora”
• “The Brutalist”
• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Conclave”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “I’m Still Here”
• “Nickel Boys
• “The Substance”
• “Wicked”

This began as a seemingly wide open race this year, but then the three-and-a-half-hour-long “Brutalist” seemed to be the front-runner after winning the Golden Globe-drama for best picture — but it seems to have lost steam. “Conclave” did really well at the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards, winning both best film and best British film awards, as well as others.

The indie darling “Anora,” however, has had an amazing winning streak as of late, racking up the Director’s Guild, the Producer’s Guild, Critics Choice and Writer’s Guild awards, so that seems to be the favorite now.

Oscar guess: “Anora”

DIRECTING

• Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
• Sean Baker, “Anora”
• Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
• Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
• James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”

All are first time nominees except Mangold, who has five nominations total over several categories (directing, writing, producing). But he’s not getting any buzz to win.

Corbet did win the Golden Globe for directing, but his film has been polarizing.

Again, Baker seems to be on a hot streak with “Anora.”

Oscar guess: Baker

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
• Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
• Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
• Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
• Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Brody is the only previous winner, for lead actor for “The Pianist.” Chalamet is a previous lead actor nominee for “Call Me By Your Name.” All the others are first-time nominees.

But it really does seem to come down to Brody and Chalamet, anyway. Chalamet just won the Screen Actors Guild award last weekend, but Oscar voting had already been over by the win, so that’s probably not an indicator. But he could still win.

Oscar guess: Brody

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
• Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
• Mikey Madison, “Anora”
• Demi Moore, “The Substance”
• Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Only Erivo is a previous nominee, for lead actress and original song for “Harriet.” And while “Wicked” is clearly a crowd-pleaser, she hasn’t won any precursor roles (the film may not be “serious” enough).

The rest are all first-time nominees. Gascón broke ground as the first trans actress to be nominated, but then suffered backlash when controversial tweets she posted in the past surfaced. She’ll be a no-go.

It really comes down to Madison and Moore, but Madison is such a newcomer it seems early to award her. Most signs point to Moore, which would honor a lengthy career and a performance many didn’t know she had in her.

Oscar guess: Moore

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Yura Borisov, “Anora”
• Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
• Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
• Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
• Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Only Norton has been nominated before (three times: supporting for “Primal Fear” and “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” and lead for “American History X”).

All the others are first-time nominees, with varying degrees of career experience. But the standout is Culkin, who it seems has literally been winning everything.

Oscar guess: Culkin

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
• Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
• Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
• Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
• Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

All are first-time nominees (even, surprisingly Rosellini) except Jones, who was previously nominated for lead actress for “The Theory of Everything.”

It seems like all fingers are pointing to Saldaña to win (even though hers is technically a leading performance with the most screen time, but whatever).

Oscar guess: Saldaña

OTHER CATEGORIES

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Conclave”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Nickel Boys”
• “Sing Sing”

Oscar guess: “Conclave”

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• “Anora”
• “The Brutalist”
• “A Real Pain”
• “September 5”
• “The Substance”

Oscar guess: “Anora”

Animated Feature Film

• “Flow”
• “Inside Out 2”
• “Memoir of a Snail”
• “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
• “The Wild Robot”

Oscar guess: “The Wild Robot”

Animated Short Film

• “Beautiful Men”
• “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
• “Magic Candies”
• “Wander to Wonder”
• “Yuck!”

Oscar guess: “Beautiful Men”

Cinematography

• “The Brutalist”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Maria”
• “Nosferatu”

Oscar guess: “The Brutalist”

Costume Design

• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Conclave”
• “Gladiator II”
• “Nosferatu”
• “Wicked”

Oscar guess: “Wicked”

Film Editing

• “Anora”
• “The Brutalist”
• “Conclave”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Wicked”

Oscar guess: “Conclave”

Makeup and Hairstyling

• “A Different Man”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Nosferatu”
• “The Substance”
• “Wicked”

Oscar guess: “Wicked”

Live-Action Short Film

• “A Lien”
• “Anuja”
• “I’m Not a Robot”
• “The Last Ranger”
• “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

Oscar guess: “Anuja”

Music (Original Score)

• “The Brutalist”
• “Conclave”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Wicked”
• “The Wild Robot”

Oscar guess: “The Brutalist”

Music (Original Song)

• “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
• “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
• “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”
• “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
• “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”

Oscar guess: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”

Documentary Feature Film

• “Black Box Diaries”
• “No Other Land”
• “Porcelain War”
• “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
• “Sugarcane”

Oscar guess: “Sugarcane”

Documentary Short Film

• “Death by Numbers”
• “I Am Ready, Warden”
• “Incident”
• “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
• “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”

Oscar guess: “I Am Ready, Warden”

International Feature Film

• “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
• “The Girl With the Needle” (Denmark)
• “Emilia Pérez” (France)
• “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
• “Flow” (Latvia)

Oscar guess: “I’m Still Here”

Production Design

• “The Brutalist”
• “Conclave”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Nosferatu”
• “Wicked”

Oscar guess: “Wicked”

Sound

• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Wicked”
• “The Wild Robot”

Oscar guess: “Dune: Part Two”

Visual Effects

• “Alien: Romulus”
• “Better Man”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
• “Wicked”

Oscar guess: “Dune: Part Two”