Oscar nomination predictions are trickier than usual

The raging wildfires in Los Angeles won’t stop the Academy Awards. It might have delayed it a little, but apparently the show must go on.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the group that hands out the Oscars, did announce that because of the wildfires, the Oscar-voting deadline would be extended by two days. Nomination ballots, previously due Jan. 12, could be turned in up until Jan. 14. The announcement of the nominations, previously set for Friday, Jan. 17, will now take place on Sunday, Jan. 19.

Comedian Conan O’Brien will host the 97th Oscars ceremony on March 2 (his first time). The Oscars will air live on ABC.

Oscar nominations are particularly hard to predict this year, as there are no real clear front-runners in many categories. Critics groups and other award shows have given their love to many films, often naming different choices with not much overlap. Here are my predictions in major categories:

BEST PICTURE

About seven of these films are somewhat lock-ins, the rest are pretty much up in the air. The three-hour-and-35-minute “The Brutalist,” about a visionary architect who escapes post-war Europe and arrives in America to rebuild his life, and “Emilia Perez,” a French-produced, Spanish-language, trans-themed bonkers musical crime thriller, seem to lead the pack.

• “Anora”
• “The Brutalist”
• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Conclave”
• “Dune Part Two”
• “Emilia Perez”
• “A Real Pain”
• “The Substance”
• “Wicked”
• “The Nickel Boys”
• Dark horse: “Sing Sing”

LEAD ACTOR

Adrien Brody and Timothee Chalamet seem like locks here, as does Fiennes. The rest is up in the air.

• Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
• Timothee Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
• Daniel Craig, “Queer”
• Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
• Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
• Dark horse: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice” or “A Different Man” (He had two strong performances this year and could be recognized for either.)

LEAD ACTRESS

This category is all over the place, and while Pamela Anderson seems like a long shot, I still think she’ll make the cut for a performance that many didn’t think she had in her. Fernanda Torres could shake things up, though, much like her lead actress-drama win at the Golden Globes.

• Pamela Anderson, ”The Last Showgirl”
• Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
• Mikey Madison, “Anora”
• Demi Moore, “The Substance”
• Karla Sofia Gascon, “Emilia Perez”
• Upset: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Only Kieran Culkin seems like a lock here, because of his win at the Golden Globes.

• Yura Borisov, “Anora”
• Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
• Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
• Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
• Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
• Upset: Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked”

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Only Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldana (in a role that’s really a leading one, but whatever) seem like locks here. But it would be nice to see Gomez nominated.

• Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Last Showgirl”
• Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
• Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
• Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
• Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Perez”
• Dark horse: Selena Gomez, “Emila Perez”

DIRECTING

I’m siding with the Directors Guild of America nominees, which unfortunately didn’t include any female directors, but Coralie Fargeat could very well shake things up.

• Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Perez”
• Sean Baker, “Anora”
• Edward Berger, “Conclave”
• Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
• James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
• Dark Horse: Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

This story was originally published January 17, 2025 at 4:12 AM.