Oscars 2015: We predict the winners
Feel that in the air? It’s actual tension!
Sure, heading into Sunday’s 87th Academy Awards, there are some categories that are clearer than plastic wrap. But three major ones are downright neck-and-neck, almost anyone’s call. And that makes for an exciting Oscar show.
Returning producers Neil Meron and Craig Zadan are certainly promising an entertaining one, starting with first-time Oscar host Neil Patrick Harris. And with such music superstars as Lady Gaga, Adam Levine, Common and Tim McGraw performing, this is shaping up to look very entertaining indeed.
And that’s good. We’ll certainly need relief from all that tension, even though that’s just the way we like it. Here are my predictions in major categories.
Best picture
“American Sniper”
“Boyhood”
“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”
It’s really down to “Boyhood” and “Birdman” in a dead heat.
“Boyhood” was the film to beat early on, but then things shifted when “Birdman” snagged the Screen Actors Guild award for best cast (their version of best picture) and most surprisingly, the Producers Guild Award (the PGA award has matched the Oscar best picture winner for 18 of its 25 years – including the last seven).
Meanwhile, the BAFTA (British Academy of Film & Television Arts) awards are on a six-year matching streak, and it named “Boyhood” best picture.
Another factor: “Birdman” didn’t get a best editing nomination, while “Boyhood” did (the last film to win best picture without a nomination for editing was “Ordinary People” in 1981).
So it’s anyone’s call.
“Boyhood” is certainly a staggering feat, filmed over the course of 12 years. It’s a touching, quiet story, while “Birdman” sizzles with energy.
The main plight of “Birdman,” about a washed-up actor trying to reinvent himself, will resonate more with the acting branches. They’re the biggest of the Academy with the most pull.
Will win: “Birdman”
Should win: “Birdman”
Best actor
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
I still say first-time nominee Carell doesn’t belong here (it’s really a supporting role), though it’s nice to see he had the acting chops in him. He won’t win, though. Neither will first-time nominee Cumberbatch, despite a finely detailed performance.
Two-time previous nominee Cooper (lead actor for 2012’s “Silver Linings Playbook.” supporting for 2013’s “American Hustle”) could benefit from a surge of support for “Sniper.”
But it’s really down to first-time nominees Keaton and Redmayne.
Keaton was the favorite early on, but then lost what could have confirmed his frontrunner status: the SAG best actor award, which went to Redmayne (the last time the SAG winner didn’t go on to win the Oscar was in 2003). Redmayne also picked up the BAFTA best actor award last week.
So things have dramatically shifted, though either performance is more than worthy (it’s too bad they are in the same year).
Keaton is electric, and he remains the sentimental choice. But Redmayne’s transformation as disease-stricken Stephen Hawking is astounding, the kind that actors love.
Even though almost every Oscar pundit is saying Redmayne will win, I have a gut feeling that Keaton will prevail. Call it hope or a hunch, but I’m going out on a limb here.
Will win: Keaton
Should win: Keaton or Redmayne
Best actress
Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
This is the first nomination for Pike and Jones, but neither are getting buzz to win. Neither is previous winner Cotillard (lead actress for 2007’s “La Vie En Rose”), who was the surprise nominee.
Previous winner Witherspoon (lead actress for 2005’s “Walk the Line”) impressively went the Earthy route (read: no makeup) for her role, but she’s not going to win, either.
Moore is a veritable sure-thing for her work in “Still Alice.” She was the front-runner heading into awards season and never lost steam. It’s also just her time after being nominated four times already (supporting for 1997’s “Boogie Nights” and 2002’s “The Hours; leading for 1999’s “The End of the Affair” and 2002’s “Far From Heaven”).
Will win: Moore
Should win: Moore
Best supporting actor
Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
Only Duvall has previously won (lead actor for 1983’s “Tender Mercies”), but he won’t win here. Neither will previous nominees Hawke (supporting actor for 2001’s “Training Day,” writing for 2004’s “Before Sunset” and 2013’s “Before Midnight”), Norton (supporting for 1996’s “Primal Fear,” leading for 1998’s “American History X”) or Ruffalo (supporting for 2010’s “The Kids Are All Right”), despite bravura work.
As good as they were, first-time nominee Simmons is even better. All signs point to his roiling performance as a vicious music teacher. As I was watching “Whiplash,” I knew he was going to win an Oscar, and he will.
Will win: Simmons
Should win: Simmons
Best supporting actress
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Laura Dern, “Wild”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”
Three-time winner Streep extends her lead as the most nominated performer ever, with this 19th nomination, but she won’t win.
Neither will previous nominee Knightley (lead for 2005’s “Pride & Prejudice”) or first-time nominee Stone. Their performances were worthy of a nomination but hardly a win.
While previous nominee Dern (lead for 1991’s “Rambling Rose”) was a nice surprise here, she’s the long shot.
All signs point to first-time nominee Arquette, who impressively sustained her role over the course of 12 years, and gave “Boyhood” its nurturing soul.
Will win: Arquette
Should win: Arquette
Best director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”
Previous nominee Miller (for 2005’s “Capote”) and first-time nominee Tyldum won’t win despite fine work.
Probably not Anderson, either, even though it’s so nice to see him finally nominated for directing after being nominated before for writing (2001’s “The Royal Tenenbaums” and 2012’s “Moonrise Kingdom”) and best animated feature (for 2009’s “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”).
It’s down to previous nominee Inarritu (directing and producing for 2006’s “Babel”) and first-time nominee Linklater in another hard-to-call race.
Linklater was the front-runner early on, winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards. Then Inarritu swept in and won the Directors Guild Award, even though Linklater prevailed to win the BAFTA award.
Every DGA champ except seven since 1948 has gone on to win the directing Oscar, though, so many pundits are saying Inarritu will win. It’s certainly well-deserved. His work in “Birdman” is dazzling.
So most signs point to Inarritu. But I’m going out on another limb with another hunch: I think Linklater will prevail. His work isn’t as flashy as Inarritu’s, but the directing branch will be impressed by his 12-year commitment to get his film made.
Really, though, it could go either way.
Will win: Linklater
Should win: Inarritu
87th Academy Awards
When: Red carpet show begins at 6 p.m. Sunday; awards ceremony begins at 7:30.
Channel: ABC and KAKE, channel 10.
Live coverage: Join us as we live-tweet the Academy Awards, and tell us what you think of the show, on Twitter at @eagle2go.
More online: Read our picks for best- and worst-dressed and our thoughts on the telecast Sunday night at kansas.com/entertainment.
Other Oscar predictions
ANIMATED FEATURE
“Big Hero 6”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“Song of the Sea”
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya”
Prediction: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Ida” (Poland)
“Leviathan” (Russia)
“Tangerines” (Estonia)
“Timbuktu” (Mauritania)
“Wild Tales” (Argentina)
Prediction: “Ida”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“American Sniper”
“The Imitation Game”
“Inherent Vice”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”
Prediction: “The Imitation Game”
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“Foxcatcher”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Nightcrawler”
Prediction: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Citizenfour”
“Finding Vivian Maier”
“Last Days in Vietnam”
“The Salt of the Earth”
“Virunga”
Prediction: “Citizenfour”
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
“Joanna”
“Our Curse”
“The Reaper (La Parka)”
“White Earth”
Prediction: “Joanna”
ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Mr. Turner”
“The Theory of Everything”
Prediction: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
ORIGINAL SONG
“Everything Is Awesome” (“The Lego Movie”)
“Glory” (“Selma”)
“Grateful” (“Beyond the Lights”)
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (“Glen Campbell … I'll Be Me”)
“Lost Stars” (“Begin Again”)
Prediction: “Glory” (“Selma”)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Ida”
“Mr. Turner”
“Unbroken”
Prediction: “Birdman”
COSTUME DESIGN
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Inherent Vice”
“Into the Woods”
“Maleficent”
“Mr. Turner”
Prediction: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
FILM EDITING
“American Sniper”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Whiplash”
Prediction: “Boyhood”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Foxcatcher”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
Prediction: “Guardians of the Galaxy”
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Into the Woods”
“Mr. Turner”
Prediction: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
“The Bigger Picture”
“The Dam Keeper”
“Feast”
“Me and My Moulton”
“A Single Life”
Prediction: “Feast”
SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
“Aya”
“Boogaloo and Graham”
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak)”
“Parvaneh”
“The Phone Call”
Prediction: “The Phone Call”
SOUND EDITING
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”
Prediction: “American Sniper”
SOUND MIXING
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”
“Whiplash”
Prediction: “American Sniper”
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Captain America: The Winter Soldier”
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
“Interstellar”
“X-Men: Days of Future Past”
Prediction: “Interstellar”
This story was originally published February 20, 2015 at 10:51 AM with the headline "Oscars 2015: We predict the winners."