What effect will El Niño, drought have on Kansas tornado season? What to know for spring
It’s almost the start of tornado season in Kansas, and while recent seasons haven’t been considered very active, the National Weather Service recommends you should still have an emergency plan in place.
“We want to be prepared as we go into, you know, April, May and June but ... we’ve had significant tornadoes as early as mid-March,” Kevin Darmofal with the NWS told The Wichita Eagle in a Wednesday phone call.
Peak tornado season in Kansas runs from April through June.
The most recent four-year count was 155 tornadoes spanning 2020 to 2023, according to a social media post from NWS Wichita office. It ranked the 19th fewest four-year tornado count in Kansas since record keeping began in 1950.
The highest four-year count was 563 recorded tornadoes between 2005 and 2008, while the span with the least tornadoes was from 1975 to 1978 with 77.
While recent seasons have been considered quiet, April 29 will mark two years since a tornado in Andover damaged or destroyed more than 200 homes in the area.
“We had that one day where that tornado was obviously very significant,” Darmofal said.
So, how could the coming season compare to previous ones? What should you do to stay safe? Here’s what to know about Kansas tornado predictions for 2024.
What makes tornado seasons severe in Kansas?
There are several aspects at play when a tornado season is considered active, Darmofal said.
“There’s a lot of ingredients that come into just making thunderstorms, and then we even need more certain ingredients to come together to produce severe thunderstorms and tornadoes,” he said.
These conditions could be a wind shear or an unstable environment. Another important aspect to tornadoes is deep moisture, which the state has lacked in recent seasons, Darmofal said.
“We haven’t really seen a super active tornado season in central Kansas and quite a few years,” Darmofal said, “and it’s just because all those things haven’t really come together at the same time, especially the deeper moisture.”
A study published in January 2023 by Northern Illinois University suggests tornado alley may be moving east, away from the Great Plains, but one of the study’s authors, Walker Ashley, told the Eagle last year Kansans most likely won’t notice a huge difference when it comes to the frequency of tornadoes.
As for this year’s tornado season, it’s tricky to predict more than a week out, Darmofal said.
“But as far as .... projecting 30 or 60 days out, it’s really hard. Our level of skill isn’t all that great as far as that goes,” the forecaster said.
While the U.S. is experiencing an El Niño weather pattern, Kansas could be transitioning to a neutral weather pattern, Darmofal said, which could mean a more active tornado season.
“There are some indications that sometimes there could be a little bit more active spring in the Central Plains, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it will,” Darmofal said.
Preparing for possible tornadoes in Kansas
Here are some steps to take to prepare for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:
- Have a safe space planned in your home for protection
- Write down important information, like emergency phone numbers
- Have emergency supplies on hand
- Have a first aid kit available
- Pack away extra food and water
Darmofal also said to have a radio or another device on hand to warn you of tornadoes in case you don’t hear outdoor sirens.
“Now we have a lot of technology with smartphones. We have the wireless emergency alert system, which basically will [set an] alarm off on your phone or let you know that a tornado warning has been issued or a high-end severe thunderstorm warning,” Darmofal said. “Those are the kinds of things that we want people to kind of think about [and] have a way to get the information.”
Kansas had its first statewide tornado drill of the year Wednesday.
If you hear an outdoor tornado siren, you should take shelter as soon as possible.
