South Carolina Governor Race: Nancy Mace Final Polls and Odds

Representative Nancy Mace is trailing behind other Republican candidates in the latest polls of the South Carolina gubernatorial primary heading into Election Day.

Mace heads into the primary behind in most public surveys, indicating that many Republicans remain divided over her ideological shifts and her rocky relationship with President Donald Trump. The race is a major test for the direction of the GOP and will gauge whether Republicans in the solidly conservative state are willing to elect a candidate who has broken from the president, against his endorsed candidate Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette.

Republican Governor Henry McMaster is unable to run for a third term due to term limits, and several candidates have jumped into the race to succeed him, including Mace, Evette, Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy and Attorney General Alan Wilson.

Newsweek reached out to each of their campaigns for comment via email.

South Carolina Governor Race: Final Polls

Polls show a tight race ahead of the June 9 primary. Notably, if no candidate reaches more than 50 percent support, a runoff election will be held between the two top candidates on June 23.

Here is a look at what the most recent surveys show.

Co/Efficient (June 2-4, 879 likely voters, MOE of +/- 3.31 percent)

What Do Prediction Markets Show?

Prediction markets favor Evette to win the nomination. Her chances surged after Trump endorsed her on May 29.

"She never wavered, never let me down, and was the only South Carolina Gubernatorial Candidate to Endorse me as soon as I launched my 2024 Presidential Campaign. She crisscrossed South Carolina and other States for me, and I said, at the time, that this is truly something which I cannot forget!" Trump wrote to Truth Social.

She holds a 77 percent chance of winning on Kalshi, compared to Wilson's 17 percent and Mace's 4.3 percent. Polymarket gives Evette a 73 percent chance of winning, Wilson a 13 percent chance and Mace a 4 percent chance as of Monday.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

How Nancy Mace and Donald Trump's Relationship Evolved Over the Years: Timeline

Mace, once viewed as a rising star in South Carolina politics, has had a tumultuous relationship with Trump over the years.

Mace was an early supporter of his, serving as a coalitions director and field director for Trump’s 2016 campaign. In 2020, Trump endorsed her congressional campaign to flip the House seat held by Democrat Joe Cunningham. Mace eked out a single-point victory in November for the seat comprised of Charleston and its suburbs.

The January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol-when a group of Trump supporters violently protested the 2020 election results during the certification of Joe Biden's win-became a turning point in their relationship. Mace sharply criticized Trump after the riot, though she did not vote to impeach him.

"His entire legacy was wiped out yesterday," she told CNN at the time.

When it came time for her reelection bid in 2022, Trump endorsed another Republican, Katie Arrington, in the primary.

"Katie Arrington of the Great State of South Carolina is making significant progress in her race to unseat Nancy Mace, the nasty RINO Congresswoman with the fresh mouth and absolute hatred of America First. Katie is fighting hard and effectively. South Carolina, VOTE for KATIE ARRINGTON!!!" Trump wrote to Truth Social in May 2022.

However, Mace won renomination with about 53 percent of the vote. Trump congratulated her on the victory.

By 2023, the feud had softened, with Mace telling Politico, "We can't afford four more years of Joe Biden. I'm willing to bury the hatchet to save the country, and I know President Trump is too."

She formally endorsed Trump in January 2024.

"I don't see eye to eye perfectly with any candidate. And until now I've stayed out of it. But the time has come to unite behind our nominee. To be honest, it's been a complete s*** show since he left the White House. Our country needs to reverse all the damage Joe Biden has done," Mace wrote to X.

By the time Trump had returned to the White House, Mace had established a record as a staunch conservative and supporter of the president despite their past feud. She joined a discharge petition to force the release of the files related to the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The files had become a sticking point for MAGA as some accused the White House of not releasing them quickly enough despite Trump's promise to make them public.

Mace had been critical of then-Attorney General Pam Bondi over the files-but had declined to criticize Trump directly.

Despite their thawing relationship, Trump opted to support Evette in the primary, pointing to her past loyalty. She told Politico she believes she did not receive the endorsement due to her Epstein vote.

"I'm still the MAGA candidate. I support all of MAGA's policies. I support our president. I'm also an independent conservative," she told the publication.

Democrats' Chances of Flipping South Carolina Governorship

Democrats are increasingly optimistic about the 2026 midterms as Trump's poor national approval rating threatens to expand their battleground. Still, forecasters don't expect this race to become competitive in November. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as safe or solid for Republicans.

Republicans had nearly a 91 percent chance on Kalshi and a 92 percent chance on Polymarket of holding onto the seat in November.

Oldendick said he expects Republicans to retain their advantage in November, as the GOP candidates lead in fundraising and name recognition.

“The trends that we see nationally that may point to Democrats gaining strength in other places aren't all that strong here,” he said. “We have to take into context how red this state is.”

South Carolina is a solidly Republican state, backing Trump by 18 points in 2024. It last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976. Former Governor Jim Hodges was the last Democrat to win a gubernatorial race in the state in 1998. He lost reelection in 2002.

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This story was originally published June 9, 2026 at 3:00 AM.