While noting that "since 1946, just 5 percent of incumbent senators seeking re-election have lost in their party primary," Sabato's Crystal Ball (issued by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics) said last week that Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., is likely to fend off tea party challenger Milton Wolf (in photo): "Let's see if Wolf can raise the kind of money he needs to make a show of strength to outside conservative groups. The only polling we've seen comes with the obvious caveat that it was commissioned by the incumbent's campaign, but the survey showed Roberts leading Wolf 69 to 15 percent among likely GOP primary voters. Also worth noting is that while some other conservative groups have endorsed Roberts, the Club for Growth – despite having little use for the incumbent Roberts – has not waded into this race yet."
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