A new study by Forecast International forecasts that business jet production will decline through 2011 and begin to build in 2012.
However, “the worst of the market downturn is over,” said Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski in a statement. “Order intake remains sluggish, but the massive wave of order cancellations and delivery deferrals experienced in late 2008 and much of 2009 has receded.”
Order backlogs are a shadow of what they were two years ago, Jaworowski said. Still, hundreds of business jet orders are still on the books.
The study projects that 11,437 business jets worth $217.5 billion will be produced from 2010 through 2019.
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The downturn has impacted small and mid-size business jet sectors far more than it has the large-cabin and long-range segments of the market.
Production rates of all types of business jets have been slashed since late 2008, but production cutbacks were deeper in light and medium jets than the larger types.
“Demand is already starting to recover for larger, high-value business jets, but it remains moriband for small and medium models,” the study said.