The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s updated forecast for the Atlantic hurricane system was released today, but there’s little new in it.
The forecast basically states that the initial forecast remains pretty much on track: an “active” season, with 14 to 20 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher).
That total includes 8 to 12 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which 4 to 6 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph).
"All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in a prepared statement. "As we've seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record."
This season has seen three named storms so far: Alex, Bonnie and Colin.