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One dip or two on recession

WICHITA — Had a chat with Malcolm Harris this morning. He’s a professor at Friends and an economist. He had some encouraging speculation.

He doesn’t think the U.S. economy will go back into recession next year, as a lot of people think, despite remaining weak. This is called a W-shaped recession or a double dip. We had one in 1979-82.

Harris said it takes a shock to push the economy, even a weak one, into recession. A shock is any kind of sudden disaster. The subprime explosion is the latest.

On the other hand, he joked, he didn’t foresee the 9/11 attacks and the anthrax scare in 2001 when he was forecasting for the US Postal Service, so there’s no telling.

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