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Air Capital Insider blog: Business jet recovery could take two years, analyst says

When will the business jet market hit bottom?

That’s the question on a couple of people’s minds who e-mail the Wichita Eagle after the news hit today that Cessna is cutting an additional 2,300 jobs, suspending development of its Citation Columbus and extending a companywide shutdown to four weeks from two.

I posed the question to analyst Peter Arment.

Unfortunately, there’s a significant lag between corporate profits and business jet activity, Arment said.

He thinks it will be “24 months before you see any meaningful uptick in business jet activity.”

If corporate profits begin to stabilize and improve by the end of this year, that means it would be the second half of 2011 before we’ll see an increase in new business jet activity, he said.

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