Business

A show of market forecasts

Boeing released its commercial market forecast last week ahead of the Paris Air Show. Today, on the first day of the show, Embraer and Forecast International have forecasts of their own.

Embraer predicts a market for 7,225 aircraft in the 30- to 120-seat segment from 2011 to 2030. Over the next 20 years, China will be the fastest-growing market, followed by Latin American, the Middle East and Asia Pacific.

Forecast International’s forecast is broader. It projects a total of 13,869 large commercial transports will be produced from 2011 through 2020 at a value of $1.8 trillion in today’s dollars.

It notes that the landscape is changing. The market has been dominated by Airbus and Boeing ever since Boeing absorbed McDonnell Douglas in the late 1990s.

But there’s new competition is in the narrowbody segment, where Bombardier’s CSeries, Comac C919 and Irkut MC-21 have appeared.

The widebody segment of the large aircraft market will continue to be largely a contest between Airbus and Boeing, it said.

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