As the Gulf oil spill gushed out of control, BP's financial liabilities seemed big enough to sink the company. No more.
Cleanup, government fines, lawsuits, legal fees and damage claims will likely exceed the $40 billion that BP has publicly estimated, according to an Associated Press analysis. But they'll be far below the highest estimates made over the summer by legal experts and prominent Wall Street banks, such as Goldman Sachs, which said costs could near $200 billion.
BP will survive the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history for several key reasons: it has little debt; its global businesses are forecast to generate $26 billion next year in cash flow from operations; the environmental impact of the spill isn't as bad as feared; and the government seems unlikely to ban BP from Gulf drilling. To bolster its finances, BP has cut its dividend, issued debt and sold more than $21 billion in assets.
"It could have been a lot worse," says Tyler Priest, a University of Houston petroleum historian who serves on President Obama's oil spill investigation committee. "BP is going to come back from this."
Many influential investors appear to agree. According to Thomson Reuters, 23 firms with $1 billion or more invested in the stock market, including BlackRock Investment Management, Managed Account Advisors and Rydex Security Global Investors, more than doubled their holdings of BP stock from July through September.
At $44.11, BP's stock price has risen 63 percent from its low of $27.02 on June 25. It's still down 27 percent from its close of $60.48 on April 20, the day of the spill. The well was capped July 15.
The AP analysis shows the company is likely to face $38 billion to $60 billion in spill-related costs. A settlement with the federal government could reduce that amount, while a successful class-action lawsuit could add billions more.
The analysis includes:
* The $10.7 billion that BP already has paid to plug its well, clean up the spilled oil and pay damage claims and other costs.
* A $20 billion fund that BP set up in August for individuals and private businesses that were affected by the spill. The fund, known as the Gulf Coast Claims Facility, pays for environmental damage, personal injury, cleanup and lost earnings. The fund so far has paid $2.7 billion to address nearly 168,000 claims. Nearly half a million individuals and businesses have filed claims, and those that settle with the fund give up their right to sue the company. If any of the $20 billion is left over, it goes back to BP.
* Fines: The Justice Department is suing BP for violating the Clean Water Act. Fines are based on how much oil was spilled. The government's estimate of 4.9 million barrels means BP faces between $5.4 billion and $21.1 billion in fines. The upper limit applies if investigators conclude BP acted with gross negligence. The government has a history of settling with companies for as little as 50 cents on the dollar in order to avoid lengthy disputes, says Eric Schaeffer, former head of the Environmental Protection Agency's enforcement division.
* Legal fees: BP has hired lawyers, engineers and geologists to defend the company. These experts could cost as much as $2 billion, according to Mitratech, a consulting firm that handles legal and trial logistics for Fortune 500 companies.
* Lawsuits: The toughest costs to estimate are future settlements and judgments from the hundreds of lawsuits filed against BP, including any class actions. Shrimpers, oystermen, charter-boat operators, restaurant workers and real-estate developers are suing BP for lost business. Oil rig workers and cleanup crews are making personal injury claims. And Gulf states and local governments are expected to sue for lost tax revenue and environmental damages. Alabama is seeking an initial $148 million from BP. Analysts at Citigroup say settlements, judgments and punitive damages from these suits will total as much as $6 billion.