Comparing Wichita's monthly housing sales year-over-year just went out the window, according to analysts Wednesday who presented the state's 2011 housing forecast.
Skewed by federal homebuyer tax credits, Wichita's housing market performance won't be easily measured over the next year, said Stan Longhofer, director of Wichita State's Center for Real Estate.
Longhofer presented his 2011 housing forecast this morning at the Wichita Mariott.
"The hangover from the tax credits has been a little deeper and larger than we anticipated," Longhofer said.
"So, as a result, the year-over-year percentage changes in home sales in Wichita are going to be skewed by the tax credits. November of 2010, for example, is going to be much lower than November of 2009 because of deadlines."
Local sales will rise by 6.6 percent in 2011, while new home construction activity will remain relatively flat, rising by 0.9 percent, Longhofer said.
"As a whole, home sales across the state appear on pace below 2009 figures, but we think we see the bottoming out of that; 2010 will be down a little bit, but we think there will begin a slow but measurable recovery in 2011."
The forecast, Longhofer said, was compiled before Hawker Beechcraft and Gov. Mark Parkinson agreed on an incentives package Tuesday night to keep most of the company's jobs in Wichita.