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Posted on Thu, Nov. 12, 2009

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State's '09 soybean harvest is forecast to be even bigger

BY RICK PLUMLEE

The Wichita Eagle

A soybean harvest already projected to be a state record was increased this week.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said this month that it expects Kansas to produce nearly 157 million bushels of soybeans this fall.

That's 11 million more than was pegged in the October forecast.

That surprised Kerry Mahlandt, who farms near Rose Hill.

"I don't see how that can be," he said Wednesday.

Slowed by an October that was the second coldest on record and 56 percent rainier than normal, Mahlandt is only half done harvesting his soybeans.

"I'm thinking I'm not the only one in this boat," he said.

Farmers in other parts of the state are faring better.

Kansas' field office for the USDA reported that 72 percent of soybeans have been harvested going into the week. And while that's still 16 percentage points behind the five-year average, it was enough to prompt the USDA to increase its prediction.

"We're hearing of some pretty good yields out there," said Kelon Johannes, executive director of the Kansas Soybean Association.

Arlan Suderman, a Wichita-based market analyst for Farm Futures, said, "For the most part, Kansas is doing well.

"There have been some rough spots, but the crop as a whole is pretty good."

The USDA's November forecast for soybeans called for the nation to produce 3.32 billion bushels — a 2 percent increase over last month's prediction.

At the same time, the USDA recognized that wet weather has slowed the nation's corn harvest and said this week it expects U.S. farmers to harvest 12.9 billion bushels — down 1 percent from its October forecast.

The USDA didn't change its corn forecast for Kansas from the record 561.2 million bushels it predicted last month.

Suderman said the different nature of the two crops explained why a forecast increased for one and went down for the other.

"Corn takes more heat to mature," he said. "Beans aren't as susceptible (to this fall's weather)."

Altering periods of rain and dry conditions caused some of the state's soybean pods to swell and spill the beans on the field. But Kansas' crop has flourished overall because the state didn't have as much sustained rain as other parts of the country did.

"The good outdid the bad," Suderman said.

But that doesn't mean the USDA won't change its forecast when it gives its final estimates in January.

Over the past 14 years, Suderman said, the USDA has increased its forecast for soybeans seven times in January over its November prediction and decreased it seven times. As for corn over the last 16 years, he said the USDA has increased its January forecast 10 times over its November projection.

Meanwhile, Mahlandt was left trying to complete his fall work.

Even a recent stretch of sunshine didn't dry out his fields much. Plus, his combine broke down Sunday, which cost him $3,000.

Mahlandt said he normally has completed harvesting and has his wheat planted by Nov 1.

In addition to his soybeans, he also has about half of his corn and grain sorghum to harvest. He wanted to plant 400 acres of wheat, but he's going to have to settle for 200 acres.

"This is the first good bean crop I've had since '92," he said, "and I can't get it all in. This is just one of those years.

"It's stressing me out. I've been praying for five weeks of drought."

Reach Rick Plumlee at 316-268-6660 or rplumlee@wichitaeagle.com.