Posted on Tue, Nov. 10, 2009

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Election a warning for both parties

By Carl Leubsdorf

Dallas Morning News

Republicans are celebrating two high-profile electoral successes last week; Democrats are licking their wounds. But the results and dynamics revealed long-term problems for both national parties.

For the Democrats, diminished enthusiasm among independent, young and minority voters raises questions about whether the coalition that elected President Obama will help the party fend off significant losses in next year's more important midterm congressional and state elections.

For the Republicans, the aggressive stance of its conservative base and resulting fallout suggest the GOP may be headed down a historical path in which an energized base takes control of a defeated party with disastrous national results, at least in the short term.

Obama's failure to prevent GOP victories in the Virginia and New Jersey governor races suggests a limit to his coattails that might unsettle Democratic senators and congressman seeking to enact his legislative proposals, especially health care reform. Yet exit polls also showed that voters said Obama wasn't much of a factor.

In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell ran a good campaign that attracted independents, while Democrat Creigh Deeds ran a poor one that turned off Obama Democrats. In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's unpopularity proved too big a hurdle in a race where a third candidate's support faded, as often happens in the stretch.

In each state, the electorate was significantly different from last year's, with proportionately more older voters and fewer minorities and younger voters. The bad news for Democrats next year is that such smaller turnouts are the norm in most midterm elections.

For the Republicans, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman's defeat in a closely watched New York congressional race seems unlikely to deter conservatives who contend that the party must offer a clear choice.

But as happened, a rightward swing might drive away moderates and replicate a potentially perilous pattern. Three times in the past half-century, a party's national defeat prompted its base to seek greater ideological purity in the next election.

In two cases, the outcome was a resounding defeat.

Sen. Barry Goldwater's conservative followers in 1964 vowed to offer "a choice not an echo" after John Kennedy's narrow 1960 presidential victory. Goldwater carried just six states.

In 1972, fervent anti-Vietnam War Democrats spearheaded liberal Sen. George McGovern's nomination. He won just one state and the District of Columbia.

In the exception, Ronald Reagan led a conservative takeover in 1980 that unseated Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was undercut by inflation at home and weak leadership abroad.

A more fruitful GOP course may be that of the two gubernatorial winners. Despite conservative roots, McDonnell played down social issues and focused on economic subjects like jobs and spending, as did Christie.

Their success suggests a way Republicans can woo the independents and less committed partisans they'll need to win in the future.

Carl Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.

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