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  Davis Merritt  

Iraq war isn't going to turn out well

It's one of those anecdotes with such a ring of possibility, even likelihood, that it becomes accepted as truth.

Here's how it goes: An American soldier in Iraq helping to arm and pay Sunni insurgents to fight al-Qaida instead of Americans asked one of them, "Do you want to kill me?"

"Yes," replied the insurgent, "but not today."

First reported in 2007 by the Economist as coming from a soldier's blog, it equals in irony and emotional impact the Vietnam War's "We had to destroy the village in order to save it" -- variously attributed to many sources, none verified but all believable, because it so mirrored the frustration of that tragic time.

The Iraq anecdote came painfully back to mind last week -- despite the overshadowing to-do about the Olympics, the economy and the presidential race -- because of a story by Richard Oppel Jr. in the New York Times on Friday.

Yes, there's still a war in Iraq, and it is not going to turn out well.

Oppel, a respected and reliable reporter, didn't make that judgment, it is mine, but the facts he relayed show once again what a tangled mess we stumbled into five years ago.

What is called the Awakening movement began among Sunni insurgents in 2006. It was a time of daily bloodletting between Sunni and Shiite factions, much of it fomented by foreign-led al-Qaida units playing on the ancient blood feud between the two. American forces were at times the target of elements of all three groups.

Some Sunni tribal leaders, finally disgusted with the killing of civilians and other excesses of al-Qaida, began to strike back. Sensing an opportunity, the U.S. military began paying the Sunnis to enforce security in certain areas, chase away al-Qaida and stop attacking Americans.

It worked in many areas, and some military people attribute the reduced violence in the country as much to the Awakening program as to the much-vaunted U.S. surge.

Now that plans are being made for a withdrawal of some U.S. combat troops, however, the Shiite-dominated government and army are determined, Oppel reported, to arrest or at least drive out the Awakening members.

"The state cannot accept the Awakening," Oppel quoted one member of Parliament. "Their days are numbered."

"These people are like cancer, and we must remove them," declared a Shiite general in Iraq's army. "There is no way to rehabilitate them."

One of "them," Abu Marouf, saw lists of the names of 650 Awakening leaders slated for arrest. He complained to Oppel that his men "sacrificed and fought against al-Qaida."

He asked: "How can you say I am not betrayed" now that al-Qaida is greatly diminished?

In a classic understatement, U.S. Brig. Gen. David Perkins said of the Iraqi government's plans to arrest the Awakening militias: "If it is not handled properly, we could have a security issue. You don't want to give anybody a reason to turn back to al-Qaida."

The implication is clear. The bottom line of the whole Iraq misadventure, no matter when and how we leave, will be that we sacrificed American blood and treasure to switch Iraq from a Sunni dictatorship to a Shiite one -- just another turn in the wheel of a thousand years.

"Yes, but not today."

Davis Merritt is a former editor of The Eagle. Reach him at dmerritt9@cox.net.