Print edition: 
In about six weeks, the 2012 Kansas Legislature will convene in Topeka, to address one of the largest policy agendas in the state’s history.
Some items — such as the budget, Medicaid restructuring, school finance and redistricting — are essentially required. Others — such as the drive to eliminate the income tax, to support marriage as a way to reduce welfare costs and enact more restrictive immigration laws — are issues that the Brownback administration is choosing to push.
This kind of aggressive agenda offers Gov. Sam Brownback and his conservative Republican allies the potential for a win-win situation; at the same time, there are some risks in pushing too hard on too many issues.
The governor and the GOP House, dominated by conservatives, can pass many of these initiatives, but the more moderate Senate is sure to resist on many particulars. Still, the Senate is overwhelmingly Republican, so there’s a good chance that some key policies, such as Medicaid reform and some tinkering with the income-tax law, can win approval.
And for those issues that are defeated or delayed, conservatives can appeal to the voters that moderate Senate Republicans were the roadblocks on the path to the implementation of a full-blown shift to the right in Kansas, turning the state into some combination of Texas (taxes) and Arizona (immigration).
Under this scenario, the governor and his allies can win by either passing a broad conservative policy agenda or by creating issues that will defeat moderate GOP senators among the allegedly right-wing Republican primary voters.
Still, there are real dangers for the Brownback administration and its conservative allies.
First, Brownback’s job-approval numbers remain mired in the low 40s, and a recent survey by the Docking Institute of Public Affairs at Fort Hays State University showed support for actually raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, rather than seeking a broad income-tax cut. And the nascent Brownback plan for “reforming” school finance has drawn the wrath of many local education officials, who see the continuation of the trend to increase taxes at the local level. If there is an Achilles’ heel in the administration’s overall agenda, it is the perception that Kansas’ generally successful education system is coming under attack.
Immigration “reforms” in Arizona and Alabama, in part orchestrated by Secretary of State Kris Kobach, have not proved to be unadulterated successes, as many Republicans have turned against the harsh state enforcement of national immigration laws.
Adding to the policy/politics mix is the great uncertainty surrounding the state’s post-census redistricting. Although congressional districts have received the greatest public attention, state legislative lines — and especially those for Senate districts — may well represent the most important decisions. The Legislature could easily find itself without clear districts for its members in early May, just weeks before the filing deadlines.
If conservatives are seen as being too demanding here, arcane procedural decisions could well escalate into an ugly blame game, with unpredictable consequences.
Overall, it makes sense for the Brownback administration and its allies to think big; they could get a lot of what they ask for, and most eyes will be diverted from the large-scale changes taking place within the bureaucracy.
Still, the risks of overreaching are real, especially if these initiatives endanger popular programs (school funding) or fly in the face of public opinion. And with redistricting thrown into the mix, the next year will move from being entertaining to becoming explosive.
