Print edition: 
The 2011 Fall Parade of Homes got off to a solid start last weekend despite the first appearance of rain this fall.
"So far, so good," Wess Galyon, president of the sponsoring Wichita Area Builders Association, said Monday as judging continued for the parade's annual prize winners.
It's a particularly important parade for the city's new-home builders, with new-home sales lagging behind existing sales this year in Wichita.
The new-home market has been stuck on about 50 sales a month, far below normal figures.
Stan Longhofer, a housing analyst and director of the Wichita State University Center for Real Estate, said the Wichita new-home market faces a significant headwind: existing home sales.
"Here's the challenge," Longhofer said. "I think there is a pent-up demand for new homes.
"But most people who buy new homes have to sell their existing homes first. Very few new-home buyers are first-time buyers, or are people who are so affluent they can carry a second house for any period of time."
Paul Gray, a local builder, agreed with Longhofer.
"Right now, we still have customers coming in and buying homes," said Gray, a former Wichita City Council member. "It's slowed with the uncertainty of jobs, though, and he's right. The big factor is that people are exposed on their existing house, which takes longer to sell now than it did."
With local consumer confidence low, the existing homes market has to perk up before new homes follow suit, Longhofer said.
"Before we see measurable improvement in new homes, we need to see existing home sales chug along at a good steady pace," he said.
"That doesn't mean that the market has to rebound to 2007, but I need to be confident that before I put a contract on a new home, I can sell my home in the meantime. Until that happens, that will put a damper on the market."
Gray said that the struggling aviation market is driving the local uncertainty.
"As long as aviation is depressed, it's going to hold down the rest," Gray said. "We have this insecurity out there among buyers that I've never seen in my life.
"And I've talked to my peers who are older than me and they've never experienced consumer confidence down so far that people are scared to pull the trigger."
The Fall Parade continues this weekend and next from noon to 6 p.m. each day with homes ranging in price from $100,000 to more than $2 million.
The event features 117 parade entries built by 44 of the area's leading builders in Wichita, Sedgwick County, Andover, Derby, Goddard, Haysville, Maize, Newton, Park City, Rose Hill and Valley Center.
