Print edition: 
FARGO, N.D. —The projected crest of the Red River at Fargo, N.D., has dropped a half-foot, which is good news for a city braced for flooding.
The National Weather Service revised its projection Friday to show the Red at 19.5 feet above the flood stage by Sunday morning. That's down from an earlier forecast of 20 feet.
Spokesman Mark Frazier says models suggest water levels should decline slowly but steadily after the crest, though flooding from the river could continue to threaten homes and roads much of next week.
Forecasters analyze a numbing array of factors when making their predictions. Hydrologists use computer models that account for soil moisture, frost depth, snowpack, temperatures, rate of snowmelt and more. Then there are the unknowns like how much rain might spill into the river.
All of these play out over thousands of square miles of Red River Valley so flat that the flooding here can best be described as spilling a glass of water on a pool table.
"I think they do a wonderful job, provided that they're looking into their crystal ball with all the wisdom they have," said Fargo resident Richard Thomas, 61.
Thomas — for now — is not too worried about flooding, with a home that sits 2 feet above Sunday's projected crest. A year ago, he weathered the crest of nearly 23 feet above flood stage thanks to a special water-filled tube. He's got it on standby if crest predictions go higher this year.
The record high water of 2009 helped forecasters by giving them new data on how the river behaves at those levels, said Greg Gust, warning coordination meteorologist at the weather service in Grand Forks. That makes the weather service more confident this year, he said.
Recent history in the Red River Valley has been painful for the weather service.
In 1997, forecasters knew there would be record flooding on the Red River 80 miles north of Fargo in Grand Forks, but they didn't realize just how bad it would be in time for the city to build its dikes high enough. The Red swelled to a record 26 feet above flood stage and the defenses failed, forcing most of the area's 60,000 residents to evacuate.
