Print edition: 
BAGHDAD — Nearly half a million people voted for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad, making him by far the leading candidate in the province where the most seats are at stake, according to partial results from this month's election.
Those hundreds of thousands of supporters in the capital, along with many thousands more who voted for al-Maliki's coalition in outlying provinces, could be in for a jolt in coming months if his powerful enemies succeed in derailing his bid for a second term as prime minister.
Especially now that he's neck and neck with a secular rival, former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, al-Maliki's chances of retaining his premiership are dubious.
His State of Law coalition has no outright majority, no mandate and precious little support from factions that would be the key to his survival.
The campaign against him is so robust that members of his own coalition haven't ruled out dumping him as the prime minister nominee in order to lure partners that would give them a dominant voice in the next government, according to interviews with al-Maliki's allies, opponents and independent observers.
Even if al-Maliki pulls off a second term over the objections of rival parties, his opponents have said privately that they'd block his efforts in parliament and open potentially embarrassing corruption inquiries, strategies that could lead to an even weaker and more violent Iraq just as U.S. forces prepare for a full withdrawal by the end of next year.
"There's a lot of resistance to him. There are a number of parties who'll find it difficult to strike a deal in a new government with him as prime minister, not necessarily with his coalition," said a Western diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he isn't authorized to make public statements. "On the other hand, if he does especially well, a large seat differential between his coalition and the second-place finisher, that'll change the dynamic."
With about 80 percent of votes counted, the race is too close to call, but so far there's only a minuscule seat differential between al-Maliki's bloc and the mixed-sect ticket led by Allawi, a secular Shiite Muslim who appears to have picked up the Sunni Muslim vote. As of late Tuesday, Allawi had even edged ahead of al-Maliki in the nationwide popular vote.
