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Today promises to be another one-and-done Selection Sunday for Missouri Valley Conference men's basketball.
Northern Iowa is in the NCAA Tournament with the automatic bid. Wichita State is expected to receive an NIT bid as one of a group of eight to 10 flawed teams with good seasons. Barring a big surprise this afternoon, the Shockers are close, but not close enough, to grabbing one of the 34 NCAA at-large spots.
WSU (25-9) learns its fate after a week of waiting after losing to UNI in the MVC Tournament championship. The players will watch the NCAA selection show, in part because they're fans.
"We're going to watch it (today) and pray and hope we can slide into one of those slots," senior Clevin Hannah said.
The optimistic ones won't give up until all spots in the bracket are filled. Realistically, the NIT selection show is the one that pertains to the Shockers. The first round of the NIT is played Tuesday and Wednesday and WSU expects to be a host.
"We didn't quite take care of business like we needed to during the season," WSU sophomore Garrett Stutz said. "Now we're at the mercy of other teams and at the mercy of the selection committee."
No other MVC team is in the conversation for an at-large spot. Two — Northern Iowa and WSU — are in the top 50 of the RPI rankings.
That's quite a comedown from 2006, when three teams earned at-large spots and Missouri State missed out despite a No. 21 RPI. Six MVC teams finished that season in the top 50. It's a comedown from 2005, when four teams finished in the top 50 and two earned at-large spots.
Those are high points. The MVC won't do that every season. Some seasons, the breaks go against the MVC and upsets gobble at-large bids (see co-champion Creighton in 2009).
Conference commissioner Doug Elgin expects better. This will be the third straight season the MVC is a one-bid bunch and the second straight with two teams in the top 50 of the RPI. Elgin says strength of schedule will be the main topic of conversation in the coming months. He thinks coaches and athletic directors will be receptive to the message.
"I think we are transitioning, and hopefully we will take those steps that we need to next year to strengthen our schedules," Elgin said. "That's what we lack right now — our schedules are not strong enough."
Elgin expects schedules to improve as a group of new coaches and athletic directors settle in. Since 2006, seven schools hired new coaches. New coaches want to win in order to keep their jobs. They aren't interested in conference solidarity until their paycheck is solid. They also need time to make connections and build relationships. Former Indiana State coach Royce Waltman used his roots as a Bob Knight assistant to get the Hoosiers on the schedule. After coaching changes, Indiana is no longer interested in playing the Sycamores.
"They come in with a need to win," Elgin said. "Now it's going to be up to me to convey the importance of all of our teams scheduling wisely."
The Valley mastered that art earlier in the decade. It used a scheduling incentive for two seasons, giving schools a chance to earn money by reaching scheduling standards. The conference ended the program in 2002. Something similar may be discussed again in the off-season.
"We went away from that, because we felt that everyone got it." Elgin said. "In (2003, '04, '05) you saw a dramatic rise of our league as people really understood the linkage between scheduling quality teams and improving the school and conference RPI."
Schools can't control all their schedule problems. The difficulties of getting good home games for MVC schools are well-chronicled. Few high-profile teams want to play in MVC arenas. Guarantee games grow more expensive each season, making it more difficult to shape RPI-friendly schedules.
Schedules are set two and three seasons ahead, meaning games that appear to be power-boosters may lose their impact.
Iowa, which played three MVC schools, didn't help with a No. 209 RPI. Northern Iowa defeated Boston College, owner of a top-60 RPI in eight of the past 10 seasons. This season, it's No. 117. Bradley defeated Illinois, a top 30 team in nine of the 10 previous seasons. This season, it's No. 72.
However, the schools clearly lightened their schedules and it hurt everyone.
In 2006 and 2010, MVC schools played 11 non-conference game against top 50 RPI teams. The difference comes lower in the rankings. In 2006, MVC schools played 32 games against 200-plus teams and six against 300-plus teams. This season, 56 schools with RPIs 200 or worse and 20 ranked 300 or worse populated MVC non-conference schedules.
"They were scheduling smart," Elgin said. "The strength of our league in the middle of the 2000s was that even our bottom half was scheduling in such a way that they were playing teams with winning records."
