Posted on Sun, Mar. 08, 2009

It has been 10 years since a tornado last hit Wichita. If that doesn't seem very long, consider this: When an F4 tornado touched down on the night of May 3, 1999, and gashed Haysville's center and Wichita's south side, officials were fretting about the arrival of Y2K, 9/11 was only a number people called in emergencies and the economy was booming.

It's also long enough for people to forget -- and that worries local authorities as Severe Weather Awareness Week arrives this week in Kansas.

"I think there is a little bit of complacency setting in," Sedgwick County Commissioner Tim Norton said.

That seems odd, he said, considering that several Kansas cities have been hit by tornadoes in the last two years -- Greensburg, Salina, Chapman and Manhattan among them.

Complacency could prove costly, especially if preliminary indications of an active tornado season this spring in the Wichita area prove accurate.

"We're certainly not immune, and we've definitely got to keep our guard up," said Dick Elder, meteorologist-in-charge of the Wichita branch of the National Weather Service.

"Is it our turn in 2009? I hope not, but I think we better be ready."

'Green line' theory

The projections of a potentially active tornado season for Wichita are based on what is called the "green line" or "wheat belt" theory of thunderstorm development.

The theory blossomed after weather researchers noticed that after a wet winter in western Kansas and Oklahoma, dry lines would fire up storms on the western edge of the wheat belt running through central Oklahoma and Kansas.

In springs following dry winters in the region, the dry lines moved much farther east before storms developed.

"Right now, it looks like it's setting up a county or so east of Wichita," said Chance Hayes, warning coordination meteorologist for the Wichita branch of the National Weather Service.

The last time that happened was in 2004, Hayes said, which turned into the most active tornado season for the Wichita coverage area since records began being kept more than 50 years ago.

A total of 53 tornadoes touched down in the 26 counties of southeast Kansas monitored by the Wichita office in 2004, including several in Harper County and another in Sumner County that barely spared Mulvane.

"We haven't come close to that since," Hayes said.

The western edge of the Kansas wheat belt includes Comanche, Kiowa, Edwards and Pawnee counties. Greensburg, the Kiowa County seat, was decimated after a very wet winter in 2006-07.

The winter of 2007-08 was drier, and assessments led local meteorologists to set the "green line" along I-135.

Sure enough, tornadoes struck Salina -- on I-135 -- and moved east to Chapman, Manhattan and other points nearby.

But tornadoes also hammered northwest and central sectors of the state, so no one should feel immune, weather officials say.

Battling complacency

Kansas set a record for the most tornadoes in one season last year and had more tornadoes than any other state in the country by far.

Yet folks around Wichita could be heard talking about what a quiet tornado season it had been.

"As we get further and further from our last disaster, the possibility for future disasters seems to sink lower in our awareness," Sedgwick County emergency management director Randy Duncan said. "Not just tornadoes -- any type of disaster."

Along with complacency, emergency service officials have to combat another mind-set that can be dangerous.

"People think, 'It's not going to happen here,' and then, 'If it does happen here, it won't happen to me,' and then 'If it does happen to me... there's nothing I could have done about it anyway,' " Duncan said.

The net result, he said, is that people don't take steps that could protect themselves.

"If it doesn't happen to us directly for a couple of seasons, the memory fades," Duncan said. "That's a concern for any program, anywhere.

"We forget at our risk -- at our peril."

The F5 tornado that tore through Haysville, Wichita and Andover in 1991 was still fresh enough in the memory that people responded quickly -- and wisely -- when the 1999 tornado struck, Hayes said.

While six people were killed, weather officials say the death toll could easily have been much higher because the tornado struck at night.

That's what makes complacency so dangerous, authorities say: a lack of awareness or preparation could prove fatal.

Hayes is finding reason for hope from an unexpected source: the turnout for storm spotter training classes is up in many places this spring.

The average crowd in Cowley County, for example, has ranged from 75 to 110 in recent years. This year, 240 people showed up, filling all the seats and spilling out into the aisles.

"That's huge," Hayes said. "It was amazing."

Reach Stan Finger at 316-268-6437 or sfinger@wichitaeagle.com.